ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

In Equity Sales and Research for more than 25 years covering Asian markets. Possesses in-depth knowledge of a wide range of companies, economies, and markets in Asia. Over his career, he has specialised in HK/China and ASEAN markets at various different Investment Banks, most recently heading equities in Indonesia for Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Jakarta for more than three years. Whilst in Jakarta, he produced a well-read daily and weekly product on the Indonesian market, which included company visits, as well as political, economic and sector commentary. A former racing skier, who enjoys ultra-marathons and surfing in his spare time.

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>This week in ASEAN@Smartkarma has seen a scintillating selection of both bottom up and Top Down and Thematic Insights across the Region.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>A summary of Insights in ASEAN@Smartkarma this week. For more detail please scroll down to the detail section.</p></div><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/glp-wannabe-china-logistics-property-holdings-still-some-concerns-post-h1-results-unfortunately" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:13263">‘GLP Wannabe’ China Logistics Property Holdings: Still Some Concerns Post H1 Results, Unfortunately</a>, Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/605" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:605">Daniel Hellberg</a> comments that after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2894" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2894:1">Global Logistic Properties Ltd (GLP SP)</a> was sold at a rich valuation in July, he decided to revisit <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22799" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22799:1">China Logistics Property Holdings Co Ltd (1589 HK)</a> in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/glp-wannabe-revisiting-china-logistics-property-holdings-after-sale-of-global-logistic-properties" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:12806">‘GLP Wannabe?’ Revisiting China Logistics Property Holdings After Sale of Global Logistic Properties</a>. </p><p>in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/reality-check-viii-is-ziga-still-worth-a-bet" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:13017">Reality Check VIII: Is ZIGA Still Worth a Bet?</a>, our Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/766" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> takes a look at recent IPO <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24425" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24425:1">Ziga Innovation PCL (ZIGA TB)</a>, a pipe company that was listed in August. While the IPO price of Bt5.90 per share was based on relative valuation, he prefers to use DCF and comes up with Bt6.70 per share as a fair value. In other words, there's still some room for upside, but not much.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/malaysia-a-divided-opposition-will-encourage-the-ruling-party" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:13334">Malaysia: A Divided Opposition Will Encourage the Ruling Party</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/48" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:48">Jason Tan</a> suggests that divisions and fractures within the opposition in Malaysia remain a longstanding issue that will reduce their chances of securing a victory against Barisan National(BN). </p><p>In his insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-hotels-sky-s-the-limit-for-most" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:13116">Thai Hotels: Sky’s the Limit! (...for Most)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/766" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> notes that in general, the Thai hotel sector had a great quarter, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2154" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2154:1">Minor International Pcl (MINT TB)</a> delivering +19% normalized earnings growth in Q2'17, but this was easily eclipsed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11290" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11290:1">Erawan Group (ERW TB)</a> , which saw a 54% earnings jump.  The only one to deliver tepid single digit growth of 4.7% was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18213" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18213:1">Central Plaza Hotel Pcl (CENTEL TB)</a> CENTEL, largely due to poor performance in the food business. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quick-update-indonesia-implications-of-freeport-and-the-16th-policy-package" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:13343">Quick Update - Indonesia: Implications of Freeport and the 16th Policy Package</a>, insight provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/48" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:48">Jason Tan</a> examines the implications of the recently signed agreement between Freeport and the Indonesian government, allowing the comoany to continue operating its Grasberg copper and gold mine in Papua. He also looks at the 16th Policy package, which will focus on streamlining the issuance of permits and licenses for investment.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/steep-dc-rate-hike-another-datapoint-vindicating-residential-price-recovery-in-play" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:13289">Steep DC Rate Hike Another Datapoint Vindicating Residential Price Recovery in Play</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1787" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1787">Will Tan, CAIA</a> examines the Singapore government's recent increase of the development charge (DC) rates for several land use groups, with the most significant increase for non-landed residential use. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sector-capsule-butter-and-margarine-in-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:13339">Sector Capsule: Butter and Margarine in Indonesia</a>, our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/483" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:483">Euromonitor International Ltd.</a> in a sector capsule piece look at butter and margarine in Indonesia.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/231" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:231:1">Unilever Indonesia Tbk Pt (UNVR IJ)</a> leads the butter and margarine segment in Indonesia.  </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mapletree-logistics-trust-a-necessary-good-deal" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:13326">Mapletree Logistics Trust: A Necessary Good Deal</a>, Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1787" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1787">Will Tan, CAIA</a> comments on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/16035" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16035:1">Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT SP)</a> 's recently announced the acquisition of HK logistics asset, Mapletree Logistics Hub Tsing Yi.  Albeit an interested party transaction (IPT), he views this acquisition as a fair deal for MLT and a good step for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/16035" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16035:1">Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT SP)</a> ’s diversification drive overseas.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-property-patricians-vs-penny-pinchers" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:13115">Thai Property: Patricians Vs Penny Pinchers</a>, our Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/766" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> contrasts property high-end developer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5562" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5562:1">Singha Estate Pcl (S TB)</a> with pre-built housing specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20877" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20877:1">Pruksa Real Estate Pcl (PS TB)</a> and finds the former more attractive. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sarana-menara-nusantara-m-a-at-play" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:13419">Sarana Menara Nusantara: M&amp;A at Play?</a>, Insight provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1079" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1079">Johannes Salim, CFA</a> looks at Indonesia's largest mobile telecom tower operator <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6848" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6848:1">Sarana Menara Nusantara Pt (TOWR IJ)</a>, which is seeing a surge in demand on the back of mobile operators aggressive expansion to cater for greater demand for data.  He also discusses the potential sale of the third largest tower operator <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/422" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:422:1">Solusi Tunas Pratama Tbk Pt (SUPR IJ)</a>, which is owned by private equity firm Carlisle, which is looking to cash out. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6848" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6848:1">Sarana Menara Nusantara Pt (TOWR IJ)</a> is firmly interested in acquiring its competitor, including its debts.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/indonesia-property-e-commerce-saving-the-day-on-the-ground-in-j-town" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:13338">Indonesia Property - E-Commerce Saving the Day</a>, Jakarta Veteran <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/937" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937">Angus Mackintosh</a> circles back to the property sector in Indonesia, post a meeting with Jones Land Lasalle Indonesia in Jakarta. The office sector continues to face a significant supply overhang, with new supply hitting a peak in 2017. The retail space continues to face limited supply, though satellite cities such as Serpong are seeing more investment. Condominiums are seeing stable demand, with smaller cheaper units seeing a better picture. Landed residential property has had a slow 1H17 but may see a pickup in the 2H17, with readily available mortgages from the likes of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/440" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1">Bank Central Asia Tbk Pt (BBCA IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/441" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1">Bank Mandiri Persero Tbk Pt (BMRI IJ)</a>, which are both looking to expand exposure in this undersupplied space. demand is coming from e-commerce, 3PL and FMCG players.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sime-darby-berhad-reorganisation-advantage-plantation-property-listcos" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:13439">Sime Darby Berhad Reorganisation: Advantage Plantation &amp; Property Listcos</a>, insight provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1364" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1364">Nandini Vijayaraghavan, CFA</a> notes that FY17 is the last full year when the more-than-a-century old Malaysian conglomerate, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20523" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20523:1">Sime Darby Berhad (SIME MK)</a>, is likely to manage its multiple businesses under a single banner. The grand old company is planning to hive off its flagship plantation business and property business into separate listed entities by end-2017. The shareholders of and their stakes in the residual Sime Darby Berhad, and the to-be-listed plantation and property companies will remain unchanged. She looks in detail at this historic re-organization.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tower-bersama-infrastructure-a-dark-horse-in-m-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:13456">Tower Bersama Infrastructure: A Dark Horse in M&amp;A?</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1079" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1079">Johannes Salim, CFA</a> writes on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3537" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3537:1">Tower Bersama Infrastructure (TBIG IJ)</a> following a conference call with the company's Investor Relations. The company is delivering better growth than its rival <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6848" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6848:1">Sarana Menara Nusantara Pt (TOWR IJ)</a> but is less well positioned to bid for third largest tower operator <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/422" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:422:1">Solusi Tunas Pratama Tbk Pt (SUPR IJ)</a>.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Contact: angus.mackintosh@smartkarma.com</p></div><table class="table table-striped"><tbody></tbody></table>

This week in ASEAN@Smartkarma has seen a scintillating selection of both bottom up and Top Down and Thematic Insights across the Region.A summary of Insights in ASEAN@Smartkarma this week. For more detail please scroll down to the detail section.In‘GLP Wannabe’ China Logistics Property Holdings: Still Some Concerns Post H1 Results, Unfortunately, Insight Provider Daniel Hellberg comments that after Global Logistic Properties Ltd (GLP SP) was sold at a rich valuation in July, he decided to revisit China Logistics Property Holdings Co Ltd (1589 HK) in ‘GLP Wannabe?’ Revisiting China Logistics Property Holdings After Sale of Global Logistic Properties. in Reality Check VIII: Is ZIGA Still Worth a Bet?, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA takes a look at recent IPO Ziga Innovation PCL (ZIGA TB), a pipe company that was listed in August. While the IPO price of Bt5.90 per share was based on relative valuation, he prefers to use DCF and comes up with Bt6.70 per share as a fair value. In other words, there's still some room for upside, but not much.In Malaysia: A Divided Opposition Will Encourage the Ruling Party, Jason Tan suggests that divisions and fractures within the opposition in Malaysia remain a longstanding issue that will reduce their chances of securing a victory against Barisan National(BN). In his insight, Thai Hotels: Sky’s the Limit! (...for Most) , Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA notes that in general, the Thai hotel sector had a great quarter, with Minor International Pcl (MINT TB) delivering +19% normalized earnings growth in Q2'17, but this was easily eclipsed by Erawan Group (ERW TB) , which saw a 54% earnings jump.  The only one to deliver tepid single digit growth of 4.7% was Central Plaza Hotel Pcl (CENTEL TB) CENTEL, largely due to poor performance in the food business. In Quick Update - Indonesia: Implications of Freeport and the 16th Policy Package, insight provider Jason Tan examines the implications of the recently signed agreement between Freeport and the Indonesian government, allowing the comoany to continue operating its Grasberg copper and gold mine in Papua. He also looks at the 16th Policy package, which will focus on streamlining the issuance of permits and licenses for investment.In Steep DC Rate Hike Another Datapoint Vindicating Residential Price Recovery in Play, Will Tan, CAIA examines the Singapore government's recent increase of the development charge (DC) rates for several land use groups, with the most significant increase for non-landed residential use. In Sector Capsule: Butter and Margarine in Indonesia, our friends at Euromonitor International Ltd. in a sector capsule piece look at butter and margarine in Indonesia.  Unilever Indonesia Tbk Pt (UNVR IJ) leads the butter and margarine segment in Indonesia.  In Mapletree Logistics Trust: A Necessary Good Deal, Insight Provider Will Tan, CAIA comments on Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT SP) 's recently announced the acquisition of HK logistics asset, Mapletree Logistics Hub Tsing Yi.  Albeit an interested party transaction (IPT), he views this acquisition as a fair deal for MLT and a good step for Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT SP) ’s diversification drive overseas.In Thai Property: Patricians Vs Penny Pinchers, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA contrasts property high-end developer Singha Estate Pcl (S TB) with pre-built housing specialist Pruksa Real Estate Pcl (PS TB) and finds the former more attractive. In Sarana Menara Nusantara: M&amp;A at Play?, Insight provider Johannes Salim, CFA looks at Indonesia's largest mobile telecom tower operator Sarana Menara Nusantara Pt (TOWR IJ), which is seeing a surge in demand on the back of mobile operators aggressive expansion to cater for greater demand for data.  He also discusses the potential sale of the third largest tower operator Solusi Tunas Pratama Tbk Pt (SUPR IJ), which is owned by private equity firm Carlisle, which is looking to cash out. Sarana Menara Nusantara Pt (TOWR IJ) is firmly interested in acquiring its competitor, including its debts.In Indonesia Property - E-Commerce Saving the Day, Jakarta Veteran Angus Mackintosh circles back to the property sector in Indonesia, post a meeting with Jones Land Lasalle Indonesia in Jakarta. The office sector continues to face a significant supply overhang, with new supply hitting a peak in 2017. The retail space continues to face limited supply, though satellite cities such as Serpong are seeing more investment. Condominiums are seeing stable demand, with smaller cheaper units seeing a better picture. Landed residential property has had a slow 1H17 but may see a pickup in the 2H17, with readily available mortgages from the likes of Bank Central Asia Tbk Pt (BBCA IJ) and Bank Mandiri Persero Tbk Pt (BMRI IJ), which are both looking to expand exposure in this undersupplied space. demand is coming from e-commerce, 3PL and FMCG players.In Sime Darby Berhad Reorganisation: Advantage Plantation &amp; Property Listcos, insight provider Nandini Vijayaraghavan, CFA notes that FY17 is the last full year when the more-than-a-century old Malaysian conglomerate, Sime Darby Berhad (SIME MK), is likely to manage its multiple businesses under a single banner. The grand old company is planning to hive off its flagship plantation business and property business into separate listed entities by end-2017. The shareholders of and their stakes in the residual Sime Darby Berhad, and the to-be-listed plantation and property companies will remain unchanged. She looks in detail at this historic re-organization.In Tower Bersama Infrastructure: A Dark Horse in M&amp;A? , Johannes Salim, CFA writes on Tower Bersama Infrastructure (TBIG IJ) following a conference call with the company's Investor Relations. The company is delivering better growth than its rival Sarana Menara Nusantara Pt (TOWR IJ) but is less well positioned to bid for third largest tower operator Solusi Tunas Pratama Tbk Pt (SUPR IJ).Contact: angus.mackintosh@smartkarma.com

China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK)

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Logistics, Hotels, and Towers