ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

In Equity Sales and Research for more than 25 years covering Asian markets. Possesses in-depth knowledge of a wide range of companies, economies, and markets in Asia. Over his career, he has specialised in HK/China and ASEAN markets at various different Investment Banks, most recently heading equities in Indonesia for Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Jakarta for more than three years. Whilst in Jakarta, he produced a well-read daily and weekly product on the Indonesian market, which included company visits, as well as political, economic and sector commentary. A former racing skier, who enjoys ultra-marathons and surfing in his spare time.

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Special Insight from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1005" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1005">Howard J Klein</a></h2>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/how-independent-research-can-add-depth-to-valuations-in-high-visibility-sectors-like-casinos" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15337">How Independent Research Can Add Depth to Valuations in High Visibility Sectors like Casinos</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1005" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1005">Howard J Klein</a> suggests that investors in the expanding casino sector are deluged with me-too analytics that can often inhibit, rather than illuminate the road to smart price discovery driven by under the radar management moves.<h2>A strategy trio from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/756" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756">Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA</a></h2>In a three part Strategy trilogy, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/756" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756">Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA</a>  finds emerging markets an attractive prospect. He suggests that the100-month stock market rally won’t last forever, US market is the risk. Gold is rising thanks to US Government debt, the US stock market, and the US$ risk. Commodities, that have been down for years, could be ready to move and US dollar weakness is set to continue the world has seen a slight recovery in fundamentals and valuations have followed. Developed markets have strong fundamentals but falling earnings and high valuations, whereas emerging markets are seeing a revenue and earnings recovery. 1) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/emerging-markets-appear-attractive-asia-is-the-place-to-be-part-1-of-3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15226">Emerging Markets Appear Attractive | Asia Is the Place to Be, Part 1 of 3</a>2) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dump-trump-asia-is-the-place-to-be-part-2-of-3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15310">Dump Trump? | Asia Is the Place to Be, Part 2 of 3</a>3) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asia-is-the-place-to-be-strong-growth-and-relatively-cheap-asia-is-the-place-to-be-part-3-of-3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15318">Asia Is the Place to Be, Strong Growth and Relatively Cheap | Asia Is the Place to Be, Part 3 of 3</a><h2></h2><div class="content-highlight">Please find below a short summary this week's insights across <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank">ASEAN@Smartkarma</a>. For a fuller account and more, please scroll down to the detailed section. </div>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/3q-earnings-disappoint-as-expected" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15220">3Q Earnings Disappoint as Expected</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1763" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1763">Lloyd Moffatt</a> circles back to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20960" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20960:1">Overseas Education Ltd (OEL SP)</a> post its recent 3Q17 results. The numbers came in below expectations as forwarded in his previous insight  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/overseas-education-ltd-oel-sp-more-pain-to-come-as-weak-enrolment-points-to-3q-miss" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:14716">Overseas Education Ltd (OEL SP) - More Pain to Come as Weak Enrolment Points to 3Q Miss</a>. in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/what-do-kl-s-millennial-shoppers-want" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15274">What Do KL’s Millennial Shoppers Want?</a>, our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/884" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:884">Jones Lang Lasalle</a> examine the changing shopping habits of Millenials in Malaysia and how it is changing the shape of malls in the country. In his insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/s-reit-weekly-what-transpired-in-the-s-reit-scene-ascendas-ht-expands-investment-mandate" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15267">S-REIT Weekly: What Transpired in the S-REIT Scene - Ascendas-HT Expands Investment Mandate</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1787" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1787">Will Tan, CAIA</a> presents a weekly summary covering the week of 06 Nov 2017 on news flow reported in the media and updates on the Singapore REIT (S-REIT) sector. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sector-capsule-imaging-devices-in-vietnam" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15258">Sector Capsule: Imaging Devices in Vietnam</a>, our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/483" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:483">Euromonitor International Ltd.</a> take a look at the space and note that digital cameras are forecast to record a volume decline of 2% to 242,000 units in 2017, with digital cameras witnesses a premiumisation trend in 2017. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tpp-negotiations-show-signs-of-new-trading-regime-in-asia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15311">TPP Negotiations Show Signs of New Trading Regime in Asia</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/35" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:35">Manu Bhaskaran</a> notes that the 11 remaining members of the TPP agreed to push ahead with the core elements of the original TPP agreement without the US. The new agreement shows how a more assertive Japan is beginning to emergeIn <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asian-monetary-policy-still-accommodative-but-not-for-long" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15328">Asian Monetary Policy: Still Accommodative but Not for Long</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/35" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:35">Manu Bhaskaran</a> examines where we are on Asian monetary policy. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/economy-underperforms-but-there-are-positive-takeaways" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15329">Economy Underperforms but There Are Positive Takeaways</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1567" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1567">Nicholas Chia</a> analyses Indonesia's 3Q17 GDP figures and notes that underperformance continues to characterise the Indonesian economy, as growth in 3Q17 came in at 5.06% y/y, only marginally higher than the 5.01% registered in 1H17.In his first insight Smartkarma, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/for-indonesia-s-parliament-speaker-legal-quicksand-deepens" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15293">For Indonesia’s Parliament Speaker, Legal Quicksand Deepens</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/2060" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2060">Kevin O’Rourke</a> comments on the intriguing and potentially groundbreaking investigation by the Corruption Eradication Commission of Hanura Party parliamentarian Miryam Haryani, who was successfully convicted of perjury on 13th November related to e-KTP case (identity card).In his second insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/indonesia-could-benefit-from-changes-in-riyadh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15246">Indonesia Could Benefit from Changes in Riyadh</a>, political insight provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/2060" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2060">Kevin O’Rourke</a> notes that Amid risks of greater Middle‑East instability, political changes in Riyadh offer hope, at long last, for staunching Saudi‑backed Salafi indoctrination efforts in Indonesia. The Saudi government has long been funding extensive efforts in Indonesia to promote Wahhabi Salafism, the ultra-conservative creed that advocates a return to conditions that prevailed when the Koran arose, more than a millennia ago. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vietnam-blue-skies-with-the-odd-monsoon" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15358">Vietnam Blue Skies: With the Odd Monsoon</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1628" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1628">Dr. Jim Walker</a> remains as upbeat about Vietnam’s economy today as he was when he visited this past September. But if there is one frustration it is that the government is still relatively slow moving on state company equitisation and privatisation.In his insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/star-petroleum-placement-just-ptt-clearing-up-their-remaining-shares-in-sprc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15369">Star Petroleum Placement - Just PTT Clearing up Their Remaining Shares in SPRC</a>, our own <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/673" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:673">Toh Zhen Zhou</a>  notes that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/197" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:197:1">PTT PCL (PTT TB)</a> is finally exiting <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21007" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21007:1">Star Petroleum Refining Pcl (SPRC TB)</a> some two years after its IPO.  The deal scores well on our framework owing to its inexpensive valuation and stronger balance sheet relative to peers. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mc-group-so-this-is-what-rock-bottom-looks-like" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15377">Mc Group: So This Is What Rock Bottom Looks Like</a>, Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/766" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> comments on this colourful jeans manufacturer, which has been more affected than most by the mourning period for the King. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/oldtown-berhad-i-would-like-to-order-white-coffee-not-black-coffee-please" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15382">OldTown Berhad: “I Would Like to Order White Coffee, Not Black Coffee, Please.”</a>, insight provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1079" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1079">Johannes Salim, CFA</a> comments on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18331" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18331:1">Oldtown Bhd (OTB MK)</a> post a conference call with management. It revealed that beverages manufacturing (primarily white coffee products) has driven decent top-line growth. The company trades at 15.0x FY19 (Year-end March), which is inexpensive for a consumer stock.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-media-spotlight-the-facebook-invasion" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:14729">Thai Media Spotlight: The Facebook Invasion</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/766" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> looks at some interesting titbits from Facebook's original stories from The Facebook Effect by David Kirkpatrick and highlights what it means for Thailand. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/singapore-primary-home-sales-increased-15-m-o-m-in-oct-2017" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15398">Singapore Primary Home Sales Increased 15% M-O-M in Oct 2017</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1644" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1644">Vivienne Zhou Jinmiao</a> notes that Singapore private residential primary home sales rebounded in October after a decline in September 2017.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/23569" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23569:1"></a>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/twpc-value-starch-maker-shows-decent-growth-potential" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15370">TWPC: Value Starch Maker Shows Decent Growth Potential</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/965" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965">Country Group</a> initiates coverage on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/23569" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23569:1">Thai Wah Public Company Limited (TWPC TB)</a> with a BUY rating and a 2018E target price of Bt12.4, based on i) business valuation at Bt11.6, derived from 15.0x PER,  and ii) net cash at Bt0.8. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/yangon-serviced-apartment-sector-quarter-update-3q-2017" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:14738">Yangon Serviced Apartment Sector Quarter Update (3Q 2017)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1644" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1644">Vivienne Zhou Jinmiao</a> comments on the service apartment sector in Vietnam. In the next 3 years, the supply of serviced apartments in Yangon is likely to triple the current stock.  In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-set-bull-domino" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15434">Thai SET Bull Domino</a>, technical insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/381" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:381">Thomas Schroeder</a> notes that he made a bull case for Thailand in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/malaysia-trailing-se-asia-breakout-cycle" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15066">Malaysia Trailing SE Asia Breakout Cycle</a> in the domino breakout sequence he laid out that kicked off with Indonesia in March 2017. Thailand has a strong chart structure that calls for a highly charged bull move above SET 50 1,100, representing a four year barrier. The SET index has in fact led the SET 50 in this breakout sequence and we see these breadth issues being ironed out soon. Thai baht strength below 30 is equity supportive near term.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/industrial-capsule-construction-in-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15419">Industrial Capsule: Construction in Indonesia</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/483" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:483">Euromonitor International Ltd.</a> suggest that prospects for Indonesia’s construction industry remain optimistic. Despite a setback in mid-2016, the Government of Indonesia has further increased planned infrastructure spending in the 2017 State Budget to IDR387.3 trillion, up from IDR346.6 trillion in the draft budget.

Special Insight from Howard J KleinIn How Independent Research Can Add Depth to Valuations in High Visibility Sectors like Casinos, Howard J Klein suggests that investors in the expanding casino sector are deluged with me-too analytics that can often inhibit, rather than illuminate the road to smart price discovery driven by under the radar management moves.A strategy trio from Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFAIn a three part Strategy trilogy, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA  finds emerging markets an attractive prospect. He suggests that the100-month stock market rally won’t last forever, US market is the risk. Gold is rising thanks to US Government debt, the US stock market, and the US$ risk. Commodities, that have been down for years, could be ready to move and US dollar weakness is set to continue the world has seen a slight recovery in fundamentals and valuations have followed. Developed markets have strong fundamentals but falling earnings and high valuations, whereas emerging markets are seeing a revenue and earnings recovery. 1) Emerging Markets Appear Attractive | Asia Is the Place to Be, Part 1 of 32) Dump Trump? | Asia Is the Place to Be, Part 2 of 33) Asia Is the Place to Be, Strong Growth and Relatively Cheap | Asia Is the Place to Be, Part 3 of 3Please find below a short summary this week's insights across ASEAN@Smartkarma. For a fuller account and more, please scroll down to the detailed section. In 3Q Earnings Disappoint as Expected, Lloyd Moffatt circles back to Overseas Education Ltd (OEL SP) post its recent 3Q17 results. The numbers came in below expectations as forwarded in his previous insight  Overseas Education Ltd (OEL SP) - More Pain to Come as Weak Enrolment Points to 3Q Miss. in What Do KL’s Millennial Shoppers Want?, our friends at Jones Lang Lasalle examine the changing shopping habits of Millenials in Malaysia and how it is changing the shape of malls in the country. In his insight S-REIT Weekly: What Transpired in the S-REIT Scene - Ascendas-HT Expands Investment Mandate, Will Tan, CAIA presents a weekly summary covering the week of 06 Nov 2017 on news flow reported in the media and updates on the Singapore REIT (S-REIT) sector. In Sector Capsule: Imaging Devices in Vietnam, our friends at Euromonitor International Ltd. take a look at the space and note that digital cameras are forecast to record a volume decline of 2% to 242,000 units in 2017, with digital cameras witnesses a premiumisation trend in 2017. In TPP Negotiations Show Signs of New Trading Regime in Asia, Manu Bhaskaran notes that the 11 remaining members of the TPP agreed to push ahead with the core elements of the original TPP agreement without the US. The new agreement shows how a more assertive Japan is beginning to emergeIn Asian Monetary Policy: Still Accommodative but Not for Long, Manu Bhaskaran examines where we are on Asian monetary policy. In Economy Underperforms but There Are Positive Takeaways, Nicholas Chia analyses Indonesia's 3Q17 GDP figures and notes that underperformance continues to characterise the Indonesian economy, as growth in 3Q17 came in at 5.06% y/y, only marginally higher than the 5.01% registered in 1H17.In his first insight Smartkarma, For Indonesia’s Parliament Speaker, Legal Quicksand Deepens, Kevin O’Rourke comments on the intriguing and potentially groundbreaking investigation by the Corruption Eradication Commission of Hanura Party parliamentarian Miryam Haryani, who was successfully convicted of perjury on 13th November related to e-KTP case (identity card).In his second insight, Indonesia Could Benefit from Changes in Riyadh, political insight provider Kevin O’Rourke notes that Amid risks of greater Middle‑East instability, political changes in Riyadh offer hope, at long last, for staunching Saudi‑backed Salafi indoctrination efforts in Indonesia. The Saudi government has long been funding extensive efforts in Indonesia to promote Wahhabi Salafism, the ultra-conservative creed that advocates a return to conditions that prevailed when the Koran arose, more than a millennia ago. In Vietnam Blue Skies: With the Odd Monsoon, Dr. Jim Walker remains as upbeat about Vietnam’s economy today as he was when he visited this past September. But if there is one frustration it is that the government is still relatively slow moving on state company equitisation and privatisation.In his insight, Star Petroleum Placement - Just PTT Clearing up Their Remaining Shares in SPRC, our own Toh Zhen Zhou  notes that PTT PCL (PTT TB) is finally exiting Star Petroleum Refining Pcl (SPRC TB) some two years after its IPO.  The deal scores well on our framework owing to its inexpensive valuation and stronger balance sheet relative to peers. In Mc Group: So This Is What Rock Bottom Looks Like, Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA comments on this colourful jeans manufacturer, which has been more affected than most by the mourning period for the King. In OldTown Berhad: “I Would Like to Order White Coffee, Not Black Coffee, Please.”, insight provider Johannes Salim, CFA comments on Oldtown Bhd (OTB MK) post a conference call with management. It revealed that beverages manufacturing (primarily white coffee products) has driven decent top-line growth. The company trades at 15.0x FY19 (Year-end March), which is inexpensive for a consumer stock.Thai Media Spotlight: The Facebook Invasion, Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA looks at some interesting titbits from Facebook's original stories from The Facebook Effect by David Kirkpatrick and highlights what it means for Thailand. In Singapore Primary Home Sales Increased 15% M-O-M in Oct 2017, Vivienne Zhou Jinmiao notes that Singapore private residential primary home sales rebounded in October after a decline in September 2017.  In TWPC: Value Starch Maker Shows Decent Growth Potential, Country Group initiates coverage on Thai Wah Public Company Limited (TWPC TB) with a BUY rating and a 2018E target price of Bt12.4, based on i) business valuation at Bt11.6, derived from 15.0x PER,  and ii) net cash at Bt0.8. In Yangon Serviced Apartment Sector Quarter Update (3Q 2017), Vivienne Zhou Jinmiao comments on the service apartment sector in Vietnam. In the next 3 years, the supply of serviced apartments in Yangon is likely to triple the current stock.  In Thai SET Bull Domino, technical insight Thomas Schroeder notes that he made a bull case for Thailand in Malaysia Trailing SE Asia Breakout Cycle in the domino breakout sequence he laid out that kicked off with Indonesia in March 2017. Thailand has a strong chart structure that calls for a highly charged bull move above SET 50 1,100, representing a four year barrier. The SET index has in fact led the SET 50 in this breakout sequence and we see these breadth issues being ironed out soon. Thai baht strength below 30 is equity supportive near term.In Industrial Capsule: Construction in Indonesia, Euromonitor International Ltd. suggest that prospects for Indonesia’s construction industry remain optimistic. Despite a setback in mid-2016, the Government of Indonesia has further increased planned infrastructure spending in the 2017 State Budget to IDR387.3 trillion, up from IDR346.6 trillion in the draft budget. 

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Education, Casinos and Political Shenanigans