ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

In Equity Sales and Research for more than 25 years covering Asian markets. Possesses in-depth knowledge of a wide range of companies, economies, and markets in Asia. Over his career, he has specialised in HK/China and ASEAN markets at various different Investment Banks, most recently heading equities in Indonesia for Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Jakarta for more than three years. Whilst in Jakarta, he produced a well-read daily and weekly product on the Indonesian market, which included company visits, as well as political, economic and sector commentary. A former racing skier, who enjoys ultra-marathons and surfing in his spare time.

ASEAN Insight Provider

Jardine Cycle & Carriage: "Buy The Fact" On MSCI Deletion

Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) - A Stand Out on a Number of Fronts

Sunpower (SPWG SP): GI Continues to Deliver; Re-Rating to 1 SGD Just a Matter of Time

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

Multiple Countries / Cross Asset Strategy

<div class="content-highlight">
<p>The week that was in <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ASEAN@Smartkarma</a> is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.</p>
<p>We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets.  </p>
</div><h3>A Digitally Enhanced SE Asia</h3><p>This week we look at the most recent Google (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc-cl-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet Inc Cl C (GOOG US)</a>), Temasek, and Bain &amp; Co. report on the SEA eConomy, and find plenty to cheer about. Accessing this exploive growth story, other than through SE Asia's largest Maret Cap stock is not easy. We seek to identify some alternative ways to play this long-term growth story below the fold and a whole lot more.</p><h3>Macro Insights</h3><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dissecting-the-2020-thai-political-crisis" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Dissecting the 2020 Thai Political Crisis</a>, our Thai guru<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> reports back on the current political situation in Thailand post the huge demonstrations in the country this October.</p><p>In Thailand<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/catalyst-calendar-for-thai-equities-2021" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Catalyst Calendar for Thai Equities 2021</a>, Thai Specialist<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> discusses some key dates to watch in late 2020 and the year 2021 in Thailand and the stocks that will be impacted by them.</p><h3>Equity Bottom Up</h3><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/emtek-emtk-ij-arise-a-new-champion-of-indonesia-tech" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Emtek (EMTK IJ) - Arise a New Champion of Indonesia Tech?</a>, CrossASEAN Insight provider<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Angus Mackintosh</a> potential catalysts ahead for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a> as it intends to seek approval for a stock split at its AGM on 14th December.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-mandiri-persero-bmri-ij-a-stand-out-on-a-number-of-fronts" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) - A Stand Out on a Number of Fronts</a>, CrossASEAN Insight provider<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Angus Mackintosh</a> discusses the latest webinar that he held with<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)</a> reveals the bank well-positioned to benefit from the gradual economic recovery taking place in Indonesia. </p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-beverage-thbev-brewing-for-reopening" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Thai Beverage (Thbev): Brewing for Reopening,</a> Cross ASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/henry-soediarko" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1006" rel="noopener">Henry Soediarko</a> revisits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> and sees it benefitting from both the Thai government's plan to give visa exemption to Chinese tourists and the positive vaccine announcement. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sunpower-spwg-sp-gi-continues-to-deliver-re-rating-to-1-sgd-just-a-matter-of-time" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45258" rel="noopener">Sunpower (SPWG SP): GI Continues to Deliver; Re-Rating to 1 SGD Just a Matter of Time,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/nicolas-van-broekhoven-24a66c2d-bca4-4f5b-adda-c4e2bcc509f4" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1208" rel="noopener">Nicolas Van Broekhoven</a> revisits one of his star performers post recent results. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jardine-cycle-carriage-buy-the-fact-on-msci-deletion" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45176" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage: "Buy The Fact" On MSCI Deletion,</a> events speialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/david-blennerhassett" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:840" rel="noopener">David Blennerhassett</a> revisits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a> post its recent MSCI deletion. JCNC's discount to NAV is at ~36% against a 12-month average of ~17%, having recently moved off its all-time low of ~38%. As JCNC is all-but a proxy into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> , this appears a straight-forward mean reversion play. </p><p>In this Thai insight<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tasco-revise-earnings-up-thanks-to-new-crude-sourcing" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> TASCO: Revise Earnings up Thanks to New Crude Sourcing</a>, our friends in<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-group-development-pcl" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Country Group Development PCL (CGD TB)</a> provide a view on<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tipco-asphalt-public-company-limited" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Tipco Asphalt (TASCO TB)</a>. </p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/awc-group-ebitda-already-turned-positive-in-3q20" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> AWC: Group EBITDA Already Turned Positive in 3Q20</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Country Group</a> see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asset-world-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28136:1" rel="noopener">Asset World Corporation (AWC TB)</a>’s earnings recovery outlook giving the company the ability to adopt a cost control program effectively, as well as benefitting from the earnings buffer from its commercial business during the pandemic. </p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pttgc-new-upswing-in-various-polymer-chains" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> PTTGC: New Upswing in Various Polymer Chains</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Country Group</a> had an analyst meeting that came out with a positive outlook for the various petrochemical chains in which it's involved. </p><p>In another Thai insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kce-bright-outlook-but-at-demanding-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> KCE: Bright Outlook but at Demanding Valuation</a>, our friends<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Country Group</a> returns to look at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kce-electronics-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1892:1" rel="noopener">Kce Electronics Pub (KCE TB)</a>'s 3Q2020 results.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/egco-3q20-core-profit-grew-from-overseas-contribution" target="_blank" rel="noopener">EGCO: 3Q20 Core Profit Grew from Overseas Contribution</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Country Group</a> reports back EGCO's reported 3Q2020 numbers. </p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sappe-3q20-earnings-back-on-track-to-yoy-growth" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> SAPPE: 3Q20 Earnings Back on Track to YoY Growth</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Country Group</a> circles back to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sappe-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3915:1" rel="noopener">Sappe Pcl (SAPPE TB)</a> after its 3Q20 results.</p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asian-foresee-a-downturn-from-thai-baht-appreciation" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> ASIAN: Foresee a Downturn from Thai Baht Appreciation</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Country Group</a> returns to look at<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asian-sea-corp-pcl" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Asian Seafoods Coldstorage (ASIAN TB)</a> after it posted a strong set of earnings in 3Q2020. </p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bgrim-3q20-core-profit-marked-new-high" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> BGRIM: 3Q20 Core Profit Marked New High</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Country Group</a> reports back on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/b-grimm-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23996:1" rel="noopener">B Grimm Power (BGRIM TB)</a> after the company announced 3Q2020 results.  </p><p>In Thailand<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bjc-expect-sssg-to-bottom-out-in-4q20" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> BJC: Expect SSSG to Bottom Out in 4Q20</a>, our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> report back on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker (BJC TB)</a> 3Q2020 earnings, which continue to be affected by the slower economy and lack of tourists but see a recovery ahead.</p><p>In this Thai insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dohome-solid-sssg-drove-3q20-earnings-to-grow-yoy" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> DOHOME: Solid SSSG Drove 3Q20 Earnings to Grow YoY</a>, our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> downgrade <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dohome-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27331:1" rel="noopener">Dohome PCL (DOHOME TB)</a> to HOLD from BUY.  </p><h3>Sector and Thematic</h3><p> In a Vietnamese focused insight,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ctg-vietnam-opportunities-growth-of-risk-rather-than-risk-of-growth" target="_blank" rel="noopener">  CTG: Vietnam Opportunities: Growth of Risk Rather than Risk of Growth</a>, banking specialist<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/paul-hollingworth" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Paul Hollingworth</a> returns to look at Vietnam’s Banking Sector and specifically <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vietnam-joint-stock-commercial-bank-for-industry-and-trade" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank For Industry and Trade (CTG VN)</a> and<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saigon-hanoi-commericial" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Saigon Hanoi Commericial (SHB VN)</a>.</p><p>In this Philippine banking insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bdo-unibank-placement-wide-discount-to-account-for-the-large-deal-size" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> BDO Unibank Placement - Wide Discount to Account for the Large Deal Size</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/zhen-zhou-toh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Zhen Zhou, Toh</a> reports back on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bdo-unibank-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:329:1" rel="noopener">BDO Unibank Inc (BDO PM)</a>'s recent block sale. </p><p>In Singapore<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/msci-singapore-index-impact-of-sea-inclusion" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> MSCI Singapore Index: Impact of SEA Inclusion</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Brian Freitas</a> reports back on MSCI's recent announcement that foreign listings would become eligible for the MSCI Singapore indices starting from May 2021. </p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/centel-3q20-should-be-the-bottom-quarter" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> CENTEL: 3Q20 Should Be the Bottom Quarter</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Country Group</a> team reports back on the 3Q2020 results from<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/central-plaza-hotel-pcl" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Central Plaza Hotel (CENTEL TB)</a>, which reported a net loss of (THB897m) in 3Q2020.</p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ratch-3q20-earnings-grew-from-better-overseas-performance" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> RATCH: 3Q20 Earnings Grew from Better Overseas Performance</a>, our friends at<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Country Group</a> report back on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ratch-group-pcl" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Ratchaburi Electric (RATCH TB)</a>'s 3Q2020 numbers. </p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/planb-v-shape-recovery-for-out-of-home-media-business" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> PLANB: V-Shape Recovery for Out-Of-Home Media Business</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Country Group</a> provides feedback after the analyst meeting of<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/plan-b-media-pcl" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Plan B Media (PLANB TB)</a> with a positive view, given the expectation towards a 4Q2020 solid recovery in earnings. </p><h3>Credit Insights</h3><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jababeka-earnings-flash-9m-fy-2020-results-lucror-analytics" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Jababeka - Earnings Flash - 9M FY 2020 Results</a>, credit specialist<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/trung-nguyen" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Trung Nguyen</a> reports back on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kawasan-industri-jababeka-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7755:1" rel="noopener">Kawasan Industri Jababeka (KIJA IJ)</a> after its 9M20 results. </p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/abm-investama-tear-sheet-lucror-analytics-fbfafeab-21cc-4315-9992-f17dd3865a12" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> ABM Investama - Tear Sheet</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/trung-nguyen" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Trung Nguyen</a> writes on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abm-investama-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6827:1" rel="noopener">ABM Investama (ABMM IJ)</a>, which he sees as  “High Risk” due to refinancing risk.</p>


The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.
We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets.  
A Digitally Enhanced SE AsiaThis week we look at the most recent Google (Alphabet Inc Cl C (GOOG US)), Temasek, and Bain &amp; Co. report on the SEA eConomy, and find plenty to cheer about. Accessing this exploive growth story, other than through SE Asia's largest Maret Cap stock is not easy. We seek to identify some alternative ways to play this long-term growth story below the fold and a whole lot more.Macro InsightsIn Dissecting the 2020 Thai Political Crisis, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA reports back on the current political situation in Thailand post the huge demonstrations in the country this October.In Thailand Catalyst Calendar for Thai Equities 2021, Thai Specialist Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA discusses some key dates to watch in late 2020 and the year 2021 in Thailand and the stocks that will be impacted by them.Equity Bottom UpIn Emtek (EMTK IJ) - Arise a New Champion of Indonesia Tech?, CrossASEAN Insight provider Angus Mackintosh potential catalysts ahead for Emtek (EMTK IJ) as it intends to seek approval for a stock split at its AGM on 14th December.In  Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) - A Stand Out on a Number of Fronts, CrossASEAN Insight provider Angus Mackintosh discusses the latest webinar that he held with Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) reveals the bank well-positioned to benefit from the gradual economic recovery taking place in Indonesia. In Thai Beverage (Thbev): Brewing for Reopening, Cross ASEAN Insight Provider Henry Soediarko revisits Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) and sees it benefitting from both the Thai government's plan to give visa exemption to Chinese tourists and the positive vaccine announcement. In Sunpower (SPWG SP): GI Continues to Deliver; Re-Rating to 1 SGD Just a Matter of Time, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Nicolas Van Broekhoven revisits one of his star performers post recent results. In Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage: "Buy The Fact" On MSCI Deletion, events speialist David Blennerhassett revisits Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP) post its recent MSCI deletion. JCNC's discount to NAV is at ~36% against a 12-month average of ~17%, having recently moved off its all-time low of ~38%. As JCNC is all-but a proxy into Astra International (ASII IJ) , this appears a straight-forward mean reversion play. In this Thai insight TASCO: Revise Earnings up Thanks to New Crude Sourcing, our friends in Country Group Development PCL (CGD TB) provide a view on Tipco Asphalt (TASCO TB). In AWC: Group EBITDA Already Turned Positive in 3Q20, Country Group see Asset World Corporation (AWC TB)’s earnings recovery outlook giving the company the ability to adopt a cost control program effectively, as well as benefitting from the earnings buffer from its commercial business during the pandemic. In PTTGC: New Upswing in Various Polymer Chains, Country Group had an analyst meeting that came out with a positive outlook for the various petrochemical chains in which it's involved. In another Thai insight,  KCE: Bright Outlook but at Demanding Valuation, our friends Country Group returns to look at Kce Electronics Pub (KCE TB)'s 3Q2020 results.In EGCO: 3Q20 Core Profit Grew from Overseas Contribution, Country Group reports back EGCO's reported 3Q2020 numbers. In SAPPE: 3Q20 Earnings Back on Track to YoY Growth, Country Group circles back to Sappe Pcl (SAPPE TB) after its 3Q20 results.In ASIAN: Foresee a Downturn from Thai Baht Appreciation, Country Group returns to look at Asian Seafoods Coldstorage (ASIAN TB) after it posted a strong set of earnings in 3Q2020. In BGRIM: 3Q20 Core Profit Marked New High, Country Group reports back on B Grimm Power (BGRIM TB) after the company announced 3Q2020 results.  In Thailand BJC: Expect SSSG to Bottom Out in 4Q20, our friends at Country Group report back on Berli Jucker (BJC TB) 3Q2020 earnings, which continue to be affected by the slower economy and lack of tourists but see a recovery ahead.In this Thai insight,  DOHOME: Solid SSSG Drove 3Q20 Earnings to Grow YoY, our friends at Country Group downgrade Dohome PCL (DOHOME TB) to HOLD from BUY.  Sector and Thematic In a Vietnamese focused insight,  CTG: Vietnam Opportunities: Growth of Risk Rather than Risk of Growth, banking specialist Paul Hollingworth returns to look at Vietnam’s Banking Sector and specifically Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank For Industry and Trade (CTG VN) and Saigon Hanoi Commericial (SHB VN).In this Philippine banking insight,  BDO Unibank Placement - Wide Discount to Account for the Large Deal Size, Zhen Zhou, Toh reports back on BDO Unibank Inc (BDO PM)'s recent block sale. In Singapore MSCI Singapore Index: Impact of SEA Inclusion, Brian Freitas reports back on MSCI's recent announcement that foreign listings would become eligible for the MSCI Singapore indices starting from May 2021. In CENTEL: 3Q20 Should Be the Bottom Quarter, Country Group team reports back on the 3Q2020 results from Central Plaza Hotel (CENTEL TB), which reported a net loss of (THB897m) in 3Q2020.In RATCH: 3Q20 Earnings Grew from Better Overseas Performance, our friends at Country Group report back on  Ratchaburi Electric (RATCH TB)'s 3Q2020 numbers. In PLANB: V-Shape Recovery for Out-Of-Home Media Business, Country Group provides feedback after the analyst meeting of Plan B Media (PLANB TB) with a positive view, given the expectation towards a 4Q2020 solid recovery in earnings. Credit InsightsIn Jababeka - Earnings Flash - 9M FY 2020 Results, credit specialist Trung Nguyen reports back on Kawasan Industri Jababeka (KIJA IJ) after its 9M20 results. In ABM Investama - Tear Sheet, Trung Nguyen writes on ABM Investama (ABMM IJ), which he sees as  “High Risk” due to refinancing risk.

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - A Digitally Enhanced SE Asia, Cement, and Thai Equities