bullish
The Rise of Polymarket: Here to Stay or an Election Phenomenon
SUMMARY
- Polymarket, an on-chain prediction market, solved a critical information gap by providing quantitative odds for future events, offering a numerical representation of probabilities that was previously lacking in news media and social discussions.
- The platform has experienced remarkable growth over the past six months. Between April and October, monthly trading volumes surged from $40 million to $2.5 billion, while open interest climbed from $20 million to $400 million. The amount of locked capital now rivals that of leading decentralized exchanges like SushiSwap AMM V3 and matches the Total Value Locked (TVL) of networks like TON.
- In October, the Polymarket website drew 35 million visits—double the traffic of popular betting sites like FanDuel. Its prediction on the US election is frequently quoted by mass media like WSJ and Bloomberg. This surge indicates that Polymarket has evolved from a notable project within the crypto space to a platform reaching mainstream audiences, marking a milestone for public adoption that Web3 has been eagerly seeking.
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