Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Jim Walker is the chief economist at Aletheia Analyst Network Limited, an independent research platform for the Asia Pacific region. Prior to joining Aletheia he was the founder and chief economist at Asianomics Group an economics and strategy research consultancy company formed in late 2007. 

Before establishing Asianomics he was the chief economist at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets. He joined CLSA in late 1991. Over the years Dr Jim achieved numerous ‘best economist’ rankings in the Asiamoney, Institutional Investor and Greenwich surveys of fund managers. In 1995 he wrote about the prospect of Asia being forced off its de facto dollar peg “within the next two-three years”. The Asian Crisis, precipitated by the Thai baht devaluation, began in July 1997.

In recent years he is best known for forecasting the US 2007 downturn and financial sector meltdown in his series of ‘Apocalypse’ reports. He remains deeply sceptical of the prevailing wisdom in central banks’ approach to monetary policy.

Over the years he has also developed an approach to analysing Asian economies based on profit and credit cycles where the importance of investment spending as the driver of economic activity is explained.

Early in his career he worked in his native Scotland as a research fellow at the Fraser of Allander Institute for Research on the Scottish Economy, and then at The Royal Bank of Scotland’s Edinburgh headquarters. He holds a Bachelor of Arts Honours degree and a doctorate in economics from the University of Strathclyde, Glasgow.

Chief Economist

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

On 14 April the IMF released its preliminary World Economic Outlook entitled The Great Lockdown in which it forecast a three per cent contraction in world output in 2020. In June the World Bank (Global Economic Prospects, June 2020) and the OECD (Economic Outlook, The world economy on a tightrope, June 2020) produced their own forecasts. These latest multilateral agency reports paint a worsening picture of economic prospects for 2020 with the World Bank looking at a 5.2% contraction in world output this year (Figure 1) and the OECD forecasting a 7.5% decline in the OECD area (around half the world’s GDP). Both continue to look for a V-shaped recovery in 2021 but the projected rebounds are becoming more muted. We still believe that they are far too optimistic.

On 14 April the IMF released its preliminary World Economic Outlook entitled The Great Lockdown in which it forecast a three per cent contraction in world output in 2020. In June the World Bank (Global Economic Prospects, June 2020) and the OECD (Economic Outlook, The world economy on a tightrope, June 2020) produced their own forecasts. These latest multilateral agency reports paint a worsening picture of economic prospects for 2020 with the World Bank looking at a 5.2% contraction in world output this year (Figure 1) and the OECD forecasting a 7.5% decline in the OECD area (around half the world’s GDP). Both continue to look for a V-shaped recovery in 2021 but the projected rebounds are becoming more muted. We still believe that they are far too optimistic.

The Race to the Bottom: Growth Pessimism Increasing but Still Too Optimistic