Amareos

Ryan Shea

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Donald Trump is a highly polarizing force, both at home and abroad. That is clear and very consistent with our US crowd-sourced sentiment indicators which show high levels of anticipation – consistent with continuing hope that Trump will deliver on his “Make America Great Again” campaign slogan - but also extremely elevated readings for anger, disgust and fear.Increased political discord is, however, not just a US phenomenon. It goes much broader, and runs much deeper. Populist candidates in Netherlands and France are ahead in the polls just weeks away from election day and uncertainty as to the outcome of European elections (Germany also goes to the ballot box in September) is having a detrimental impact on regional asset markets.Having failed to predict the two biggest political events of last year, it is hardly surprisingly that investors are jumping at every shadow, especially given the dramatic market impact these events had.Nevertheless, it is hard to see much merit in overcompensating for last year’s failings by overestimating the odds that European governments will soon be led by nationalist politicians with radically different policy agendas who seek to break-away from (break-up?) the single currency. Using the same crowd-sourced sentiment indicators that flagged both Brexit and Trump we assess the likelihood that the “populist” movement evident in the Anglosphere spreads to continental Europe.

 Donald Trump is a highly polarizing force, both at home and abroad. That is clear and very consistent with our US crowd-sourced sentiment indicators which show high levels of anticipation – consistent with continuing hope that Trump will deliver on his “Make America Great Again” campaign slogan - but also extremely elevated readings for anger, disgust and fear.Increased political discord is, however, not just a US phenomenon. It goes much broader, and runs much deeper. Populist candidates in Netherlands and France are ahead in the polls just weeks away from election day and uncertainty as to the outcome of European elections (Germany also goes to the ballot box in September) is having a detrimental impact on regional asset markets.Having failed to predict the two biggest political events of last year, it is hardly surprisingly that investors are jumping at every shadow, especially given the dramatic market impact these events had.Nevertheless, it is hard to see much merit in overcompensating for last year’s failings by overestimating the odds that European governments will soon be led by nationalist politicians with radically different policy agendas who seek to break-away from (break-up?) the single currency. Using the same crowd-sourced sentiment indicators that flagged both Brexit and Trump we assess the likelihood that the “populist” movement evident in the Anglosphere spreads to continental Europe.

The Market Sentimentalist: Redshift Politics