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Amareos

Ryan Shea

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

United states / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Summary</h2>The Fed is poised to continue its rate hiking cycle. Reminiscent of earlier bond market conundrums, longer-dated Treasury yields have not risen as many, including numerous Fed officials, anticipated. As a result, the US yield curve has experienced a significant flattening trend, with the difference between 2/10s now down to 60bp.Historically, an inverted yield curve has been a reliable lead indicator of recession in the US. Given President Trump’s pick for Fed Chair, Powell, has intimated…

SummaryThe Fed is poised to continue its rate hiking cycle. Reminiscent of earlier bond market conundrums, longer-dated Treasury yields have not risen as many, including numerous Fed officials, anticipated. As a result, the US yield curve has experienced a significant flattening trend, with the difference between 2/10s now down to 60bp.Historically, an inverted yield curve has been a reliable lead indicator of recession in the US. Given President Trump’s pick for Fed Chair, Powell, has intimated…

The Market Sentimentalist - Get Out Of Jail Free: Thoughts On US Yield Curve Flattening