Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Equity Bottom-Up

iShares MSCI Australia / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Inspired by Professor Robert Shiller&rsquo;s best seller, Irrational Exuberance, I developed the Jamie Durie Index over a decade ago to provide a quantitative measure of the property market culture of the time. Interestingly, the number of times 'Jame Durie' appeared in newspapers and magazines correlated closely with the cycle in house prices, with both peaking in 2003. Fast forward to 2015, and the Treasury Secretary has weighed into the debate on the property market culture, suggesting that the plethora of home renovation shows is compelling evidence of over-investment in housing. In this post, I suggest that Australia has not yet reached a tipping point for a property bubble. The modest level of renovation activity, low turnover in the housing stock and the fact that private sector dwelling investment is in line with historical norms suggests that the emerging property market culture does not yet share the speculative elements that prevailed during the boom of the early 2000s.</p>

Inspired by Professor Robert Shiller&rsquo;s best seller, Irrational Exuberance, I developed the Jamie Durie Index over a decade ago to provide a quantitative measure of the property market culture of the time. Interestingly, the number of times 'Jame Durie' appeared in newspapers and magazines correlated closely with the cycle in house prices, with both peaking in 2003. Fast forward to 2015, and the Treasury Secretary has weighed into the debate on the property market culture, suggesting that the plethora of home renovation shows is compelling evidence of over-investment in housing. In this post, I suggest that Australia has not yet reached a tipping point for a property bubble. The modest level of renovation activity, low turnover in the housing stock and the fact that private sector dwelling investment is in line with historical norms suggests that the emerging property market culture does not yet share the speculative elements that prevailed during the boom of the early 2000s.

The Jamie Durie Index Re-visited: No property bubble yet