Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

GPIF Policy Mix Changes Ride to Global Risk Rescue

JAPAN DELTA III - The Annual TOPIX Dividend Trade

Quiddity Advisors

Quantitative Analysis

Yesterday, the GPIF announced its new policy mix in <a href="https://www.gpif.go.jp/en/topics/Adoption%20of%20New%20Policy%20Portfolio_En.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Adoption of New Policy Profile</a>. This was the quinquennial policy review and 
The big change was moving domestic bonds to 25% ±x% from 35% ±10% and moving foreign bonds from 15% ±4% to 25% ±6%, then because the mix now has its central policy points at 25% each for domestic bonds, domestic equity, foreign bonds and foreign equity, each with somewhat wide margins for slippage, there are additional limits requiring that equities stay within 50% ±11% (while bonds can be 50% ±13%). 
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/125/777/original/Screenshot%202020-03-31%20at%209.38.45%20PM.png?1585661945" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="125777"></figure>
This was basically flagged last week, and discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/gpif-policy-mix-changes-ride-to-global-risk-rescue" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37770" rel="noopener">GPIF Policy Mix Changes Ride to Global Risk Rescue</a>. 
The GPIF also amended its Q2 and Q3 investment results announcements to include the allocations of each asset (see below). That is somewhat important because it could suggest that the GPIF is finished with any large scale movement of assets across the various asset buckets (because the specific reason mentioned last fall as to why they had stopped publishing the asset breakdowns was so that there wouldn't be speculation and front-running of their moves. 
Then again, maybe this is reverse psychology.
This morning saw news that CIO Mizuno-san had finished his term and left, and that former head of fixed income trading and former co-head of Japan markets at Goldman Sachs Mr. Eiji Ueda would be named CIO this afternoon. I see the official appointment of a man with that name as a 'director' earlier this afternoon. 
More discussion of where we stand and what could happen next below.

Yesterday, the GPIF announced its new policy mix in Adoption of New Policy Profile. This was the quinquennial policy review and 
The big change was moving domestic bonds to 25% ±x% from 35% ±10% and moving foreign bonds from 15% ±4% to 25% ±6%, then because the mix now has its central policy points at 25% each for domestic bonds, domestic equity, foreign bonds and foreign equity, each with somewhat wide margins for slippage, there are additional limits requiring that equities stay within 50% ±11% (while bonds can be 50% ±13%). 

This was basically flagged last week, and discussed in GPIF Policy Mix Changes Ride to Global Risk Rescue. 
The GPIF also amended its Q2 and Q3 investment results announcements to include the allocations of each asset (see below). That is somewhat important because it could suggest that the GPIF is finished with any large scale movement of assets across the various asset buckets (because the specific reason mentioned last fall as to why they had stopped publishing the asset breakdowns was so that there wouldn't be speculation and front-running of their moves. 
Then again, maybe this is reverse psychology.
This morning saw news that CIO Mizuno-san had finished his term and left, and that former head of fixed income trading and former co-head of Japan markets at Goldman Sachs Mr. Eiji Ueda would be named CIO this afternoon. I see the official appointment of a man with that name as a 'director' earlier this afternoon. 
More discussion of where we stand and what could happen next below.

The GPIF's New Policy Mix