Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

Confirmation that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has adopted a patient approach to policy conduct provoked an unjustified rally in risky assets due to the earlier hints from Fed officials, but incoming economic data may not necessarily guarantee that the next move in the federal funds rate will be in a downward direction.
Furthermore, markets also rallied due to an intimation that the Fed will consider stopping balance sheet shrinkage at an early juncture, but Chair Powell indicated that the federal funds rate remains the prime policy tool to alter monetary conditions in a normal economic environment, not balance sheet size.
Due to potential downside risks in the economic outlook, the FOMC has seemingly raised the bar for increasing the federal funds rate, thereby indicating a dovish tilt in its prospective policy conduct.
Some commentators believe Fed Chair Powell has downgraded the role of the Phillips Curve in setting policy by announcing a patient policy approach at full employment, thus additionally raising the possibility that the FOMC is prepared to tolerate an overshooting of its 2% inflation target.
Meanwhile, other observers are hinting that the Fed’s dovish policy tilt simply reflects damage inflicted on Chair Powell and the FOMC in the aftermath of the recent spat with President Trump.
Some commentators are citing poor communication to financial markets by the FOMC since last September for creating excessive volatility during 2018 Q4, and this has consequently forced the adoption of the patient policy approach to rectify past mistakes.

Confirmation that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has adopted a patient approach to policy conduct provoked an unjustified rally in risky assets due to the earlier hints from Fed officials, but incoming economic data may not necessarily guarantee that the next move in the federal funds rate will be in a downward direction.
Furthermore, markets also rallied due to an intimation that the Fed will consider stopping balance sheet shrinkage at an early juncture, but Chair Powell indicated that the federal funds rate remains the prime policy tool to alter monetary conditions in a normal economic environment, not balance sheet size.
Due to potential downside risks in the economic outlook, the FOMC has seemingly raised the bar for increasing the federal funds rate, thereby indicating a dovish tilt in its prospective policy conduct.
Some commentators believe Fed Chair Powell has downgraded the role of the Phillips Curve in setting policy by announcing a patient policy approach at full employment, thus additionally raising the possibility that the FOMC is prepared to tolerate an overshooting of its 2% inflation target.
Meanwhile, other observers are hinting that the Fed’s dovish policy tilt simply reflects damage inflicted on Chair Powell and the FOMC in the aftermath of the recent spat with President Trump.
Some commentators are citing poor communication to financial markets by the FOMC since last September for creating excessive volatility during 2018 Q4, and this has consequently forced the adoption of the patient policy approach to rectify past mistakes.

The Fed's Dovish Tilt: Unconvincing Articulation Invites Conspiracy Theories