Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Jim Walker is the chief economist at Aletheia Analyst Network Limited, an independent research platform for the Asia Pacific region. Prior to joining Aletheia he was the founder and chief economist at Asianomics Group an economics and strategy research consultancy company formed in late 2007. 

Before establishing Asianomics he was the chief economist at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets. He joined CLSA in late 1991. Over the years Dr Jim achieved numerous ‘best economist’ rankings in the Asiamoney, Institutional Investor and Greenwich surveys of fund managers. In 1995 he wrote about the prospect of Asia being forced off its de facto dollar peg “within the next two-three years”. The Asian Crisis, precipitated by the Thai baht devaluation, began in July 1997.

In recent years he is best known for forecasting the US 2007 downturn and financial sector meltdown in his series of ‘Apocalypse’ reports. He remains deeply sceptical of the prevailing wisdom in central banks’ approach to monetary policy.

Over the years he has also developed an approach to analysing Asian economies based on profit and credit cycles where the importance of investment spending as the driver of economic activity is explained.

Early in his career he worked in his native Scotland as a research fellow at the Fraser of Allander Institute for Research on the Scottish Economy, and then at The Royal Bank of Scotland’s Edinburgh headquarters. He holds a Bachelor of Arts Honours degree and a doctorate in economics from the University of Strathclyde, Glasgow.

Chief Economist

Covid-19/Economy/ Consumption/US-China/Digital Yuan

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

<p>Much has been written about the possible GDP effects of the COVID-induced recession that the global economy is facing. Most of it, we believe, is not realistic. That is partly down to the modelling techniques being used (the Kansas City Federal Reserve GDPNow model is currently forecasting positive 2.7% growth for 2Q20 – a meaningless and wrongly-signed fantasy number thrown up by the model inputs) and the lack of precedents. It is also the case that most economic forecasters start at the wrong end of the expenditure spectrum – consumption – when trying to estimate growth effects.</p>

Much has been written about the possible GDP effects of the COVID-induced recession that the global economy is facing. Most of it, we believe, is not realistic. That is partly down to the modelling techniques being used (the Kansas City Federal Reserve GDPNow model is currently forecasting positive 2.7% growth for 2Q20 – a meaningless and wrongly-signed fantasy number thrown up by the model inputs) and the lack of precedents. It is also the case that most economic forecasters start at the wrong end of the expenditure spectrum – consumption – when trying to estimate growth effects.

The Downside Shock: More like 1998 than 2008