Independent Economist, Forecaster and Strategist

Thomas Lam

Tom has over two decades of experience in the realm of economics and finance, with expertise ranging from covering the global economy, deciphering financial markets, including macro forecasting, to advising on investment strategy.

He commenced his career in New York, initially at a large money-center bank and then at a hedge fund.  Thereafter, while in Singapore, he worked at two financial institutions and later joined academia.  

Tom has been consistently ranked among the top five most accurate economists in the world on forecasting the US economy overall (placed third, last published by the “Bloomberg Rankings of Top Forecasters”).  During the Global Financial Crisis, he was also acknowledged as the second-best US forecaster worldwide.  

Moreover, he was exclusively identified by Bloomberg to have accurately predicted the onset of the 2009 US recovery 16 months ahead of the official announcement.  Consequently, he has been widely publicized as one of “Wall Street’s Most Prophetic Economists”.

Fed Snap (May 1 Meeting): Current & Future Takeaways

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

China Housing: Demand-Supply Fundamentals - Part #3: Solving The Construction Indicators Puzzle

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The anomalous behavior of the unemployment rate bears further monitoring</li>
<li>The ongoing labor market rebalancing could prospectively result in a higher unemployment rate with a lag</li>
<li>While the April survey data implies potentially soggy headline growth in 2Q 2024, my weekly recession odds indicator remains relatively benign for now </li>
</ul>


The anomalous behavior of the unemployment rate bears further monitoring
The ongoing labor market rebalancing could prospectively result in a higher unemployment rate with a lag
While the April survey data implies potentially soggy headline growth in 2Q 2024, my weekly recession odds indicator remains relatively benign for now 


The Art and Science of Data Dependence