Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Nearly 25 years of experience in analyzing hundreds of companies, especially in Asia. Deep expertise in the following sectors:
- Technology (E-commerce, SaaS, Internet)
- Consumer 
- Special Situations/Deep Value Plays
- Holdcos/Stubs
- Asian Unicorns/Private Companies

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Prosperity/ Afghanistan/ US-China/ Pensions/ Arctic

Afghanistan Debacle: Few Winners and Many Losers in Asia from the Afghan Crisis

China: Aggressive Stimulus Still Unlikely; Are There Silver Linings in the Regulatory Blitz?

Cross Asset Strategy

Multiple Countries / Cross Asset Strategy

The Afghanistan disaster is setting up to be potentially the next black swan event because of so much uncertainty involving this situation. We are writing about this event since not only can it move the global financial markets, but also change the course of history, just like COVID-19. It took a few weeks/months for the millions of people around the world to realize that COVID-19 was indeed a black-swan event in 1Q 2020. Now, nearly a week has passed since the Afghanistan disaster has erupted. It is still uncertain whether this will become a black swan event. Currently, there are estimated to be nearly <a href="https://time.com/6091745/bidens-decision-to-exit-afghanistan/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">10,000 to 15,000 Americans</a> stranded in Afghanistan. There are also thousands of other people in different nationalities that are still in this country.Given all the information available, it appears that for now, this hostage situation could last at least several more months, well into the end of 2021. If this hostage situation involving thousands of Americans lasts for many months, it could have a major negative impact on the global equity markets, especially in emerging markets such as Korea/Taiwan which are deemed more risky than the US equity market.

The Afghanistan disaster is setting up to be potentially the next black swan event because of so much uncertainty involving this situation. We are writing about this event since not only can it move the global financial markets, but also change the course of history, just like COVID-19. It took a few weeks/months for the millions of people around the world to realize that COVID-19 was indeed a black-swan event in 1Q 2020. Now, nearly a week has passed since the Afghanistan disaster has erupted. It is still uncertain whether this will become a black swan event. Currently, there are estimated to be nearly 10,000 to 15,000 Americans stranded in Afghanistan. There are also thousands of other people in different nationalities that are still in this country.Given all the information available, it appears that for now, this hostage situation could last at least several more months, well into the end of 2021. If this hostage situation involving thousands of Americans lasts for many months, it could have a major negative impact on the global equity markets, especially in emerging markets such as Korea/Taiwan which are deemed more risky than the US equity market. 

The Afghanistan Hostage Disaster - The Next Black Swan Event?