Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Mr. Bhaskaran is a leading Asian economist based in Singapore with more than 30 years of experience in studying economic, political and security issues that shape the business environment in Asia. He co-ordinates the Asian business of Washington DC-based strategic advisory firm, Centennial Group, directing its Asian economic research practice which provides in-depth analysis of macro trends in Asia. He works extensively with investment institutions, government agencies and corporations. Mr. Bhaskaran regularly presents his views on the economic, political and business environment in Asia at business conferences and in-house briefings. He has conducted studies on a wide range of subjects including: consumer finance in Asia; Asian integration; regional and country-specific political and economic outlooks; the Impact of China on Asia; portfolio capital flows in emerging markets, amongst many others. He is as a member of the Regional Advisory Group for Asia and the Pacific of the International Monetary Fund. Mr. Bhaskaran is a regular columnist for The Edge (Singapore) and holds positions in think tanks including being Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS); Vice President of the Economics Society of Singapore, and Council Member of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA). Mr. Bhaskaran serves on the boards of CIMB Investment Bank and Japfa Limited.

Asia Economist and CEO

Thailand: Clear Timeline to Election Established

Thailand: Post-Cremation, Politics Back in the Spotlight

Thailand: Potential Trigger for Political Tensions

Thailand: Government Aid to Suppress NPLs, Support Consumption

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Buoyant external demand has driven the economic upswing, with domestic demand gradually firming up as well in the form of rising private consumption and investment. However, the rural farm sector is coming under renewed pressure from declining agricultural prices. Public sector largesse is expected to ramp up to provide more support.</li><li>The BOT upgraded growth and export forecasts and has also resisted overt pressure from government quarters to cut the policy rate further. The policy rate will continue to be on ice until domestic demand revives sufficiently.</li><li>Finally, the political atmosphere is febrile and cracks could show once the cremation of late King Bhumibol is over, particularly if the military government attempts to stay on in some manner and in light of the conviction of former PM Yingluck.</li></ul>

Buoyant external demand has driven the economic upswing, with domestic demand gradually firming up as well in the form of rising private consumption and investment. However, the rural farm sector is coming under renewed pressure from declining agricultural prices. Public sector largesse is expected to ramp up to provide more support.The BOT upgraded growth and export forecasts and has also resisted overt pressure from government quarters to cut the policy rate further. The policy rate will continue to be on ice until domestic demand revives sufficiently.Finally, the political atmosphere is febrile and cracks could show once the cremation of late King Bhumibol is over, particularly if the military government attempts to stay on in some manner and in light of the conviction of former PM Yingluck.

Thailand: Export-Oriented Economy Cruising, Politics Febrile, Monetary Policy on Ice