Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

On July 3rd, US-based commercial real estate services company, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cbre-group-inc-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19659:1" rel="noopener">CBRE Group Inc A (CBG US)</a>, <a href="https://www.telfordhomes-ir.london/investors/cash-offer-for-telford-homes-plc/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> that they had reached an agreement with the board of London-based residential real estate developer, AIM-listed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telford-homes-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23245:1" rel="noopener">Telford Homes (TEF LN)</a>, to acquire 100% of the shares of Telford Homes by way of a Scheme of Arrangement at a price of GBP3.50 per share. The offer values the target at a market cap of GBP 265 million. 
While the Offer Price translates to premia of 11.1%, 14.3%, and 21.3%  to the undisturbed price, 1-month VWAP and 3-month VWAP respectively, it remains 3.4% lower than the 1-year VWAP of Telford shares. Furthermore, the offer price also translates to discounts of 28.8% and 38.8% to the stock's 1-year and 2-year highs respectively.
The urban Build-To-Rent market in the UK is less well-established than the market in the US, which has grown rapidly in the last couple of decades. If you were a big international player in the real estate brokerage and rental space, this might be an attractive opportunity for vertical expansion in the UK.
Although the offeror has basically stated that, unless there is a competitive bid, "the Acquisition Price is final and will not be increased", Telford's shares have been trading through terms at GBP and yesterday closed at GBP3.53. But the devil is always in the details. 
The Scheme requires the approval of 75% shareholders and Merger control approval from the European Commission, which should not be problematic. In the absence of any competitive situation, the Scheme is "expected to become Effective during the third quarter of 2019."

On July 3rd, US-based commercial real estate services company, CBRE Group Inc A (CBG US), announced that they had reached an agreement with the board of London-based residential real estate developer, AIM-listed Telford Homes (TEF LN), to acquire 100% of the shares of Telford Homes by way of a Scheme of Arrangement at a price of GBP3.50 per share. The offer values the target at a market cap of GBP 265 million. 
While the Offer Price translates to premia of 11.1%, 14.3%, and 21.3%  to the undisturbed price, 1-month VWAP and 3-month VWAP respectively, it remains 3.4% lower than the 1-year VWAP of Telford shares. Furthermore, the offer price also translates to discounts of 28.8% and 38.8% to the stock's 1-year and 2-year highs respectively.
The urban Build-To-Rent market in the UK is less well-established than the market in the US, which has grown rapidly in the last couple of decades. If you were a big international player in the real estate brokerage and rental space, this might be an attractive opportunity for vertical expansion in the UK.
Although the offeror has basically stated that, unless there is a competitive bid, "the Acquisition Price is final and will not be increased", Telford's shares have been trading through terms at GBP and yesterday closed at GBP3.53. But the devil is always in the details. 
The Scheme requires the approval of 75% shareholders and Merger control approval from the European Commission, which should not be problematic. In the absence of any competitive situation, the Scheme is "expected to become Effective during the third quarter of 2019." 

Telford Homes Takeout - A Disappointing End?