European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

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Event-Driven

Telxius, a subsidiary of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telefonica-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21299:1" rel="noopener">Telefonica SA (TEF SM)</a> (50% Telefonica, 40% KKR, 10% Pontegadea) reached an agreement with Boston-based <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/american-tower-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6365:1" rel="noopener">American Tower (AMT US)</a> to sell its entire tower unit (30,722 sites across Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Germany, Peru and Spain).
<ul>
<li>The EV is €7.7 bn including the remaining payments to be done by Telxius to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telefonica-deutschland-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21687:1" rel="noopener">Telefonica Deutschland Holding (O2D GR)</a> to complete the German transaction.</li>
<li>The price is 30.x EBITDA, above the usual 23x.</li>
<li>Telefónica will reduce its debt by €4.6 bn, 12.5% of the total.</li>
<li>Debt reduction and pending corporate operations provide the group with sufficient liquidity to maintain its commitment to shareholders for the time being.</li>
</ul>
In the current context, Telefonica focuses on the management of FCF to preserve the payment of the dividend, by reducing investments. The dividend remains at €0.4 per share and debt, one of the group's main drawbacks, fell c.15% LTM. In the long term, the potential for structural growth is low, competition high, and room to maneuver limited. The current environment makes it difficult to sell non-strategic assets at adequate prices and questions the sustainability of the dividend.
<h3>Recommendation</h3>
Telefonica: DCF valuation is €4.2 (Capital IQ consensus, WACC 6.4%, g 0.3%).
<ul>
<li>The sale of Telxius may support market expectations for a potential acceleration in the execution of the strategic reshuffle announced by management, thus leading to a re-rating of the company.</li>
<li>But there are risks: slower deleverage, lower economic growth in Spain (24% of EBITDA), macro deterioration and currency depreciations in Central and South America (c. 15% of EBITDA). Positive surprises may come from further disposals at high multiples thus leading to faster deleverage, better than expected economic growth in Central and South America and a reduction of the (so far unsustainable) dividend.</li>
</ul>
Cellnex, reiterate TP of €64.36. Cellnex could become the object of a take-over.

Telxius, a subsidiary of Telefonica SA (TEF SM) (50% Telefonica, 40% KKR, 10% Pontegadea) reached an agreement with Boston-based American Tower (AMT US) to sell its entire tower unit (30,722 sites across Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Germany, Peru and Spain).

The EV is €7.7 bn including the remaining payments to be done by Telxius to Telefonica Deutschland Holding (O2D GR) to complete the German transaction.
The price is 30.x EBITDA, above the usual 23x.
Telefónica will reduce its debt by €4.6 bn, 12.5% of the total.
Debt reduction and pending corporate operations provide the group with sufficient liquidity to maintain its commitment to shareholders for the time being.

In the current context, Telefonica focuses on the management of FCF to preserve the payment of the dividend, by reducing investments. The dividend remains at €0.4 per share and debt, one of the group's main drawbacks, fell c.15% LTM. In the long term, the potential for structural growth is low, competition high, and room to maneuver limited. The current environment makes it difficult to sell non-strategic assets at adequate prices and questions the sustainability of the dividend.
Recommendation
Telefonica: DCF valuation is €4.2 (Capital IQ consensus, WACC 6.4%, g 0.3%).

The sale of Telxius may support market expectations for a potential acceleration in the execution of the strategic reshuffle announced by management, thus leading to a re-rating of the company.
But there are risks: slower deleverage, lower economic growth in Spain (24% of EBITDA), macro deterioration and currency depreciations in Central and South America (c. 15% of EBITDA). Positive surprises may come from further disposals at high multiples thus leading to faster deleverage, better than expected economic growth in Central and South America and a reduction of the (so far unsustainable) dividend.

Cellnex, reiterate TP of €64.36. Cellnex could become the object of a take-over.

Telefonica SA

Telefonica's Disposal of Telxius