Malaysia: China, Cronyism and the Siege Mentality (Part 6 of 7)

Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia: Not Compelling but Relatively Low Beta in 2017 (Part 7 of 7)

Korea: Chaebol Under Pressure but Who Will Benefit? (Part 4 of 7)

India: Elections, Incremental Progress and the Decline of Deference (Part 3 of 7)

China: Recent Corporate Improvement an Illusion Without Reform (Part 2 of 7)

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<p>The overweight position in Taiwan has continued to work throughout 2016 and we stay with it, though only in default of more compelling alternatives as the risks have risen considerably in the wake of the election of Donald Trump. Our concerns are not so much with the attitude of the new administration to the status of Taiwan vis a vis one China, but more with the possibility of a trade war between the US and China, which would cause material damage to the supply chains in the technology…</p>

The overweight position in Taiwan has continued to work throughout 2016 and we stay with it, though only in default of more compelling alternatives as the risks have risen considerably in the wake of the election of Donald Trump. Our concerns are not so much with the attitude of the new administration to the status of Taiwan vis a vis one China, but more with the possibility of a trade war between the US and China, which would cause material damage to the supply chains in the technology…

Taiwan: Risks Rising but Remains Relatively Attractive (Part 5 of 7)