Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Jim Walker is the chief economist at Aletheia Analyst Network Limited, an independent research platform for the Asia Pacific region. Prior to joining Aletheia he was the founder and chief economist at Asianomics Group an economics and strategy research consultancy company formed in late 2007. 

Before establishing Asianomics he was the chief economist at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets. He joined CLSA in late 1991. Over the years Dr Jim achieved numerous ‘best economist’ rankings in the Asiamoney, Institutional Investor and Greenwich surveys of fund managers. In 1995 he wrote about the prospect of Asia being forced off its de facto dollar peg “within the next two-three years”. The Asian Crisis, precipitated by the Thai baht devaluation, began in July 1997.

In recent years he is best known for forecasting the US 2007 downturn and financial sector meltdown in his series of ‘Apocalypse’ reports. He remains deeply sceptical of the prevailing wisdom in central banks’ approach to monetary policy.

Over the years he has also developed an approach to analysing Asian economies based on profit and credit cycles where the importance of investment spending as the driver of economic activity is explained.

Early in his career he worked in his native Scotland as a research fellow at the Fraser of Allander Institute for Research on the Scottish Economy, and then at The Royal Bank of Scotland’s Edinburgh headquarters. He holds a Bachelor of Arts Honours degree and a doctorate in economics from the University of Strathclyde, Glasgow.

Chief Economist

Taiwan Politics: Bullied and Bribed by the Mainland

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

“No longer is Taiwan the isolated, renegade province. Increasingly it is an integrated part of the Greater China economy.” -Asianomics Report, No. 5/2013, Taiwan: Paradox Island, 11 June 2013Famous last words. Five years ago all the talk was of the Economics Co-operation Framework Agreement (ECFA) between Taiwan and Mainland China brokered by the then Kuomintang Government led by President Ma Ying-jeou and the Xi Jinping Administration. The main focus at that time was on the services sector deal which would allow Taiwanese banks, insurance companies and other service industries greater access to a market that the manufacturing sector had penetrated years before.There was opposition on the island to the opening (there would have been opposition even if it hadn’t been China) but the whole deal went into abeyance as soon as Tsai Ing-wen, then the leader of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), won the presidency in 2016 (Tsai resigned as party leader after the DPP's defeat in this November's local elections). Today, Taiwan is in the deep freeze as regards China relations and feeling increasingly bullied and bribed by the Mainland (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/taiwan-politics-bullied-and-bribed-by-the-mainland" target="_blank">Taiwan Politics: Bullied and Bribed by the Mainland</a>). The country, as ever, is reliant on the global trade cycle although, truth be told, that is a millstone of its own making. There are great companies listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange and investors should be heavily positioned in them but, increasingly, they have nothing to do with what is going on in Taiwan itself. That looks unlikely to change in the near future.

“No longer is Taiwan the isolated, renegade province. Increasingly it is an integrated part of the Greater China economy.”  -Asianomics Report, No. 5/2013, Taiwan: Paradox Island, 11 June 2013Famous last words. Five years ago all the talk was of the Economics Co-operation Framework Agreement (ECFA) between Taiwan and Mainland China brokered by the then Kuomintang Government led by President Ma Ying-jeou and the Xi Jinping Administration. The main focus at that time was on the services sector deal which would allow Taiwanese banks, insurance companies and other service industries greater access to a market that the manufacturing sector had penetrated years before.There was opposition on the island to the opening (there would have been opposition even if it hadn’t been China) but the whole deal went into abeyance as soon as Tsai Ing-wen, then the leader of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), won the presidency in 2016 (Tsai resigned as party leader after the DPP's defeat in this November's local elections). Today, Taiwan is in the deep freeze as regards China relations and feeling increasingly bullied and bribed by the Mainland (see Taiwan Politics: Bullied and Bribed by the Mainland). The country, as ever, is reliant on the global trade cycle although, truth be told, that is a millstone of its own making. There are great companies listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange and investors should be heavily positioned in them but, increasingly, they have nothing to do with what is going on in Taiwan itself. That looks unlikely to change in the near future.

Taiwan: Manufacturing Still Rules the Roost