Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

US Treasury Market Questions Fed's Prospective Policy Path

Aggressive Start to Fed Policy Easing Cycle Aimed at Reducing Stress at Low Income Consumers?

Pace of Fed Policy Easing Dependent on Future Labour Market Weakness Impacting Growth

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>There is a possibility of a repeat of the events in 2000 Q4 and 2001 Q1, when economic conditions unravelled quickly and labour hoarding crushed corporate profits and equity valuations.</li>
<li>Lower interest rates will typically support equities unless the corporate sector has committed large and persistent strategic mistakes, such as excessive investment or bad lending.</li>
<li>Unfolding political events could push the economy into recession, despite the best efforts of the Fed. Profligate fiscal policy conduct could present challenges for the economy after the election.</li>
</ul>


There is a possibility of a repeat of the events in 2000 Q4 and 2001 Q1, when economic conditions unravelled quickly and labour hoarding crushed corporate profits and equity valuations.
Lower interest rates will typically support equities unless the corporate sector has committed large and persistent strategic mistakes, such as excessive investment or bad lending.
Unfolding political events could push the economy into recession, despite the best efforts of the Fed. Profligate fiscal policy conduct could present challenges for the economy after the election.


Supportive Backdrop for US Equities, but the Events of 2000 Pose a Warning Against Complacency