New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

Forsyth Barr

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Equity Bottom-Up

Summerset Group Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<h2>Summerset Group &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Strong Q2 sales offset by cautious guidance</h2>
Summerset (SUM) have again reported strong quarterly sales numbers with Q2 sales of 154 new sales (up +20% 12m rolling and +4% vs Q1) and 127 resales (up +12% 12m rolling and -9% versus Q1). &nbsp;The COVID-19 disruptions over the prior year makes comparisons difficult. Looking at 1H this year vs 2H last year suggests re-sales largely flat and new sales up 9%. However, Summerset is guiding towards unusual seasonality this year, with both new and re-sales being weighted towards the first half vs previous years when it has been second half weighted. Additionally, Summerset expect a higher proportion of lower priced serviced apartments and care suites this year vs last. All in all, despite the strong Q2 sales numbers, we would not expect consensus numbers to increase on back of this release as the strong first half looks to be offset by a weaker second half and lower average selling prices.
SUM quarterly sales track
<table class="table table-striped">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 81.8pt;">
&nbsp;
</td>
<td style="width: 34pt;">
1H19
</td>
<td style="width: 34pt;">
2H19
</td>
<td style="width: 34pt;">
1H20
</td>
<td style="width: 34pt;">
2H20
</td>
<td style="width: 34pt;">
1H21
</td>
<td style="width: 75.45pt;">
1H21 vs 2H20
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 81.8pt;">
New Sales
</td>
<td style="width: 34pt;">
136
</td>
<td style="width: 34pt;">
193
</td>
<td style="width: 34pt;">
128
</td>
<td style="width: 34pt;">
276
</td>
<td style="width: 34pt;">
302
</td>
<td style="width: 75.45pt;">
9.4%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 81.8pt;">
Resales
</td>
<td style="width: 34pt;">
142
</td>
<td style="width: 34pt;">
181
</td>
<td style="width: 34pt;">
136
</td>
<td style="width: 34pt;">
245
</td>
<td style="width: 34pt;">
243
</td>
<td style="width: 75.45pt;">
-0.8%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 81.8pt;">
Total
</td>
<td style="width: 34pt;">
278
</td>
<td style="width: 34pt;">
374
</td>
<td style="width: 34pt;">
264
</td>
<td style="width: 34pt;">
521
</td>
<td style="width: 34pt;">
545
</td>
<td style="width: 75.45pt;">
4.6%
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/217/831/original/image_92464323131626049586766.png?1626049585" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="217831"></figure>
Source: Forsyth Barr analysis, Company reports
Aaron Ibbotson &nbsp;CFA Director / Senior Analyst, Equities
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0?ui=2&amp;ik=f57c39853c&amp;attid=0.2&amp;permmsgid=msg-f:1705025488182175061&amp;th=17a977a5dc15e555&amp;view=fimg&amp;sz=s0-l75-ft&amp;attbid=ANGjdJ8M9uE9Aa9AFfDgfSGW0hGkJXUfwFOphhQsu2Ay6W6mgMZOewsGVMK4RX_OFOilxRx7TJ3UmOumcTTOlDa3ndQc7P6AnkNveti7pNnN302yDHy7vUSHeVdrvzc&amp;disp=emb" class="editor-image img-responsive"></figure>
 M: +64 21 470 377 |P: +64 9 368 0024 | TF: 0800 367 227&nbsp; Level 23, Shortland &amp; Fort, 88 Shortland Street, Auckland

Summerset Group &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Strong Q2 sales offset by cautious guidance
Summerset (SUM) have again reported strong quarterly sales numbers with Q2 sales of 154 new sales (up +20% 12m rolling and +4% vs Q1) and 127 resales (up +12% 12m rolling and -9% versus Q1). &nbsp;The COVID-19 disruptions over the prior year makes comparisons difficult. Looking at 1H this year vs 2H last year suggests re-sales largely flat and new sales up 9%. However, Summerset is guiding towards unusual seasonality this year, with both new and re-sales being weighted towards the first half vs previous years when it has been second half weighted. Additionally, Summerset expect a higher proportion of lower priced serviced apartments and care suites this year vs last. All in all, despite the strong Q2 sales numbers, we would not expect consensus numbers to increase on back of this release as the strong first half looks to be offset by a weaker second half and lower average selling prices.
SUM quarterly sales track




&nbsp;


1H19


2H19


1H20


2H20


1H21


1H21 vs 2H20




New Sales


136


193


128


276


302


9.4%




Resales


142


181


136


245


243


-0.8%




Total


278


374


264


521


545


4.6%





Source: Forsyth Barr analysis, Company reports
Aaron Ibbotson &nbsp;CFA Director / Senior Analyst, Equities

 M: +64 21 470 377 |P: +64 9 368 0024 | TF: 0800 367 227&nbsp; Level 23, Shortland &amp; Fort, 88 Shortland Street, Auckland

Summerset Group: Strong Q2 Sales Offset by Cautious Guidance