Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Over 15 years analysing Japanese and Asian stocks from a long/short perspective

I focus on cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos

An eclectic background as a long-short analyst, upper management at a financial data startup through its listing, and as the founder of a team analysing big/alternative data, all of which supports independent and differentiated views... we hope

An appreciation for Mathematics drives the development of a "Micro-Quantamental" process which can provide a data-driven, historically-informed and semi-automated foundation upon which to layer more qualitative and judgemental analysis, thus improving investment decision-making speed and accuracy

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Subaru: FY Guidance Downgrade Likely Priced in but Likely Weak Recovery Next Year Is Likely Not

Subaru: Continuing Quality Issues and Employee Suicide Point to Sustainability Issues

Auto Earnings: Positive Toyota/Mazda, Negative Subaru/Suzuki

SUBARU: Medium-Term Business Plan STEP Is a Step into Lala Land?

Subaru: Margin Erosion Progressing Faster than We Expected, 1Q Sales Drop Surprisingly Large

SUBARU: 1QFY18 Let`s Get Ready to Rumble! SUBARU Bulls Vs. Bears Is on After the Earnings Call

July 2018 US Automotive Sales: Profitability Becomes a Distant Dream

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5439" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5439:1">Subaru Corp (7270 JP)</a> announced a downward revision to forecasts after market close. Revenue was revised down by 1.6%, but the shocker was a 44.5% reduction in OP guidance for the half on account of quality-related expenses.</p><p>This essentially means 2Q revenue was about ¥753.9bn and OP was about ¥3.4bn vs. consensus at ¥795.1bn and ¥74.9bn respectively. The stock is trading at about 9.5x PE, a premium to peers and this development creates significant downside risks.</p>

Subaru Corp (7270 JP) announced a downward revision to forecasts after market close. Revenue was revised down by 1.6%, but the shocker was a 44.5% reduction in OP guidance for the half on account of quality-related expenses.This essentially means 2Q revenue was about ¥753.9bn and OP was about ¥3.4bn vs. consensus at ¥795.1bn and ¥74.9bn respectively. The stock is trading at about 9.5x PE, a premium to peers and this development creates significant downside risks.

Subaru: Downward Revision to 1H on Quality Costs Is Sharp Negative Surprise