Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Over 15 years analysing Japanese and Asian stocks from a long/short perspective

I focus on cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos

An eclectic background as a long-short analyst, upper management at a financial data startup through its listing, and as the founder of a team analysing big/alternative data, all of which supports independent and differentiated views... we hope

An appreciation for Mathematics drives the development of a "Micro-Quantamental" process which can provide a data-driven, historically-informed and semi-automated foundation upon which to layer more qualitative and judgemental analysis, thus improving investment decision-making speed and accuracy

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Subaru – Improvement in Margins Despite Revenue Decline

Subaru – One Of The Better Weak Yen Plays

Subaru: Toyota's Increased Stake, US Volume and Profit Growth Support Positive Momentum

Subaru: Joint BEV Development with Toyota Matters; Toyota's CASE Strategy Becoming Clearer

Subaru – Pointing the Way for Auto Sector Recovery

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Subaru Corp reported its 4QFY21 results on 11th May and posted revenue of ¥755bn (-11.8% QoQ, -12.1% YoY) and OP of ¥4.2bn (OPM of 0.6%) which is a 6.5% deterioration in operating margin YoY.The reported revenue was 3.8% lower than consensus estimates while OP was significantly lower than consensus estimates (¥19bn).<table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 43.96%;">In ¥bn</td>
<td style="width: 18.68%;">Revenue </td>
<td style="width: 18.68%;">OP</td>
<td style="width: 18.68%;">OPM</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 43.96%;">Actual Results - 4QFY21</td>
<td style="width: 18.68%;">                    755</td>
<td style="width: 18.68%;">                     4.2</td>
<td style="width: 18.68%;">0.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 43.96%;">Consensus - 4QFY21</td>
<td style="width: 18.68%;">785</td>
<td style="width: 18.68%;">23.2</td>
<td style="width: 18.68%;">2.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 43.96%;">Surprise</td>
<td style="width: 18.68%;">-3.8%</td>
<td style="width: 18.68%;">-81.8%</td>
<td style="width: 18.68%;">-2.4% points</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 43.96%;"> </td>
<td style="width: 18.68%;"> </td>
<td style="width: 18.68%;"> </td>
<td style="width: 18.68%;"> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 43.96%;">Actual - FY21</td>
<td style="width: 18.68%;">2,830</td>
<td style="width: 18.68%;">102</td>
<td style="width: 18.68%;">3.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 43.96%;">Guidance - FY21</td>
<td style="width: 18.68%;">2,850</td>
<td style="width: 18.68%;">100</td>
<td style="width: 18.68%;">3.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 43.96%;">Surprise</td>
<td style="width: 18.68%;">-0.7%</td>
<td style="width: 18.68%;">2.5%</td>
<td style="width: 18.68%;">0.1% points</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table><div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">Source: Company disclosures, CapIQ</div>

Subaru Corp reported its 4QFY21 results on 11th May and posted revenue of ¥755bn (-11.8% QoQ, -12.1% YoY) and OP of ¥4.2bn (OPM of 0.6%) which is a 6.5% deterioration in operating margin YoY.The reported revenue was 3.8% lower than consensus estimates while OP was significantly lower than consensus estimates (¥19bn).

In ¥bn
Revenue 
OP
OPM


Actual Results - 4QFY21
                    755
                     4.2
0.6%


Consensus - 4QFY21
785
23.2
2.9%


Surprise
-3.8%
-81.8%
-2.4% points


 
 
 
 


Actual - FY21
2,830
102
3.6%


Guidance - FY21
2,850
100
3.5%


Surprise
-0.7%
2.5%
0.1% points

Source: Company disclosures, CapIQ

Subaru – Below Book and Ready to Rebound