Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Invesco Real Estate Bumps Intended Tender Offer Price

Starwood Tender for Invesco Fails - Invesco Deal More Likely To Work But...

Invesco Real Estate Deal for Invesco Office (3298) Successful - Now For the Aftermath

Starwood Responds to Invesco Office's White Knight Proposal

Invesco Office's Terrible, Horrible, No Good Very Bad Day... Changes Things

Invesco Office's Beige Knight (Deemed Dirty Gray By Markets) Suddenly Looks Brighter and Whiter

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<p>On the 21st of May, after the Starwood Tender Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invesco-office-j-reit-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7414:1" rel="noopener">Invesco Office J Reit (3298 JP)</a> ("Invesco Office REIT" or "IOJ") had gone ex- for the then-extant Tender Offer Closing Date of the 24th of May and the morning after Invesco Real Estate (Cayman) ("IRE") had announced it had proposed to Invesco Office REIT that it take it private at ¥22,500/unit, Starwood complained about IRE's bid, saying that it lacked detail, funding, and credibility and was incapable of being accepted. It said that its own offer at ¥21,750 was a good offer, and sufficient, and that Starwood was <em>"very encouraged by the unitholder interest received to date."</em></p><p><em>I wrote on that in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/starwood-responds-to-invesco-office-s-white-knight-proposal" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51883" rel="noopener">Starwood Responds to Invesco Office's White Knight Proposal</a>.</em></p><p>Starwood was so encouraged by unitholder interest received that the next day it extended the Tender Offer on the last day for another three weeks to June 15th.  </p><h2>The NEW News</h2><p>The Proposed Overbid by Invesco has now been matched in price by Starwood.</p><p>Today, Starwood <a href="https://disclosure.edinet-fsa.go.jp/E01EW/BLMainController.jsp?uji.verb=W00Z1020initialize&amp;uji.bean=ek.bean.EKW00Z1020Bean&amp;TID=W00Z1020&amp;PID=W1E63041&amp;SESSIONKEY=1622519337310&amp;lgKbn=2&amp;dflg=0&amp;iflg=null&amp;row=100&amp;idx=0&amp;str=&amp;kbn=1&amp;flg=&amp;syoruiKanriNo=S100LG3O" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> (Tender Offer Registration filing in Japanese) that it would raise the price of its Tender Offer from ¥21,750 to ¥22,500/unit, and more importantly, that it would lower the minimum tender condition from 4,341,133 units to 3,877,247 units, which means a post-Tender ownership level of 50% plus one share.</p><p>This was not unexpected. </p><p>More discussion below.</p><hr><div><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr><td colspan="3" style="width: 723.2px;"><h3>The Insights to Date in the Starwood - Invesco Office REIT Tussle</h3></td></tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 80.8px;">Date</td>
<td style="width: 92px;">Direction</td>
<td style="width: 508.8px;">Title</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 80.8px;">5 Apr 2021</td>
<td style="width: 92px;">Bullish but...</td>
<td style="width: 508.8px;"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/starwood-targets-japan-s-first-hostile-reit-full-tob-for-invesco-office-j-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49976" rel="noopener">Starwood Targets Japan's First Hostile REIT Full TOB for Invesco Office J-REIT</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 80.8px;">8 Apr 2021</td>
<td style="width: 92px;">Bearish but...</td>
<td style="width: 508.8px;"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/starwood-hostile-reit-tender-launched" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50112" rel="noopener">Starwood Hostile REIT Tender Launched</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 80.8px;">15 Apr 2021</td>
<td style="width: 92px;">Bullish but...</td>
<td style="width: 508.8px;"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/invesco-office-j-reit-responds-to-starwood-s-hostile-offer" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50381" rel="noopener">Invesco Office J-REIT Responds to Starwood's Hostile Offer</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 80.8px;">23 Apr 2021</td>
<td style="width: 92px;">Bearish but...</td>
<td style="width: 508.8px;"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/starwood-rejection-of-extension-means-full-hostile-tender" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50641" rel="noopener">Starwood Rejection of Extension Means Full Hostile Tender</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 80.8px;">6 May 2021</td>
<td style="width: 92px;">Outright Bullish</td>
<td style="width: 508.8px;"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/invesco-office-opposes-starwood-hostile-offer-and-gets-a-distinctly-beige-knight" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51162" rel="noopener">Invesco Office OPPOSES Starwood Hostile Offer and Gets a Distinctly Beige Knight</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 80.8px;">11 May 2021</td>
<td style="width: 92px;">Outright Bearish</td>
<td style="width: 508.8px;"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/starwood-bumps-terms-lowers-threshold-on-invesco-office" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51302" rel="noopener">Starwood Bumps Terms, Lowers Threshold on Invesco Office</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 80.8px;">13 May 2021</td>
<td style="width: 92px;">Bullish</td>
<td style="width: 508.8px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/invesco-office-s-terrible-horrible-no-good-very-bad-day-changes-things" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51410" rel="noopener">Invesco Office's Terrible, Horrible, No Good Very Bad Day... Changes Things</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 80.8px;">20 May 2021</td>
<td style="width: 92px;">Bullish</td>
<td style="width: 508.8px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/invesco-office-s-beige-knight-deemed-dirty-gray-by-markets-suddenly-looks-brighter-and-whiter" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51803" rel="noopener">Invesco Office's Beige Knight (Deemed Dirty Gray By Markets) Suddenly Looks Brighter and Whiter</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 80.8px;">23 May 2021</td>
<td style="width: 92px;">Bearish</td>
<td style="width: 508.8px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/starwood-responds-to-invesco-office-s-white-knight-proposal" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51883" rel="noopener">Starwood Responds to Invesco Office's White Knight Proposal</a> </td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>

On the 21st of May, after the Starwood Tender Offer for Invesco Office J Reit (3298 JP) ("Invesco Office REIT" or "IOJ") had gone ex- for the then-extant Tender Offer Closing Date of the 24th of May and the morning after Invesco Real Estate (Cayman) ("IRE") had announced it had proposed to Invesco Office REIT that it take it private at ¥22,500/unit, Starwood complained about IRE's bid, saying that it lacked detail, funding, and credibility and was incapable of being accepted. It said that its own offer at ¥21,750 was a good offer, and sufficient, and that Starwood was "very encouraged by the unitholder interest received to date."I wrote on that in Starwood Responds to Invesco Office's White Knight Proposal.Starwood was so encouraged by unitholder interest received that the next day it extended the Tender Offer on the last day for another three weeks to June 15th.  The NEW NewsThe Proposed Overbid by Invesco has now been matched in price by Starwood.Today, Starwood announced (Tender Offer Registration filing in Japanese) that it would raise the price of its Tender Offer from ¥21,750 to ¥22,500/unit, and more importantly, that it would lower the minimum tender condition from 4,341,133 units to 3,877,247 units, which means a post-Tender ownership level of 50% plus one share.This was not unexpected. More discussion below.
The Insights to Date in the Starwood - Invesco Office REIT Tussle

Date
Direction
Title


5 Apr 2021
Bullish but...
Starwood Targets Japan's First Hostile REIT Full TOB for Invesco Office J-REIT


8 Apr 2021
Bearish but...
Starwood Hostile REIT Tender Launched


15 Apr 2021
Bullish but...
Invesco Office J-REIT Responds to Starwood's Hostile Offer


23 Apr 2021
Bearish but...
Starwood Rejection of Extension Means Full Hostile Tender


6 May 2021
Outright Bullish
Invesco Office OPPOSES Starwood Hostile Offer and Gets a Distinctly Beige Knight


11 May 2021
Outright Bearish
Starwood Bumps Terms, Lowers Threshold on Invesco Office


13 May 2021
Bullish

Invesco Office's Terrible, Horrible, No Good Very Bad Day... Changes Things 


20 May 2021
Bullish

Invesco Office's Beige Knight (Deemed Dirty Gray By Markets) Suddenly Looks Brighter and Whiter 


23 May 2021
Bearish

Starwood Responds to Invesco Office's White Knight Proposal 



Starwood Bumps Invesco Office Price to Match But STILL Not a Done Deal