Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Nigel Chiang

Centennial Asia Advisors deliver timely and accurate economic and political analysis to investors, focused on anticipating key turning points that affect the client’s interests in the Asia-Pacific region. Clients include public agencies and central banks, as well as fund managers and investment banks. The company draws strength from its flexibility to tailor products to fit client’s specific interests. It provides detailed macro-economic forecasts, scenario analysis and timely assessments of how specific major economic and political developments may affect a client’s areas of interest. At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way.

Economist

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Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul style="list-style-type: square;">
<li>We studied the historical relationship between output and unemployment (Okun’s law) in the Singapore context to forecast labour market outcomes in 2021.</li>
<li>Our estimates imply that the labour market would have avoided a “cliff” effect upon the expiration of policy support measures in the second quarter - a key downside risk that we had flagged early on.</li>
<li>However, our forecasts still imply significant slack in the labour market by the end 2021 consistent with a relatively large negative output gap, that will pose headwinds to consumer spending for some time.</li>
<li>That said, we remain comfortable with our above-consensus GDP growth forecast (CAA: 6.7%, consensus: 5.9%) which already factors in a relatively weak outlook for domestic consumption and is premised instead on a) robust export growth, b) a rebound in construction aided by favorable base effects, c) a revival in private investment and d) (marginally) supportive government spending.</li>
</ul>


We studied the historical relationship between output and unemployment (Okun’s law) in the Singapore context to forecast labour market outcomes in 2021.
Our estimates imply that the labour market would have avoided a “cliff” effect upon the expiration of policy support measures in the second quarter - a key downside risk that we had flagged early on.
However, our forecasts still imply significant slack in the labour market by the end 2021 consistent with a relatively large negative output gap, that will pose headwinds to consumer spending for some time.
That said, we remain comfortable with our above-consensus GDP growth forecast (CAA: 6.7%, consensus: 5.9%) which already factors in a relatively weak outlook for domestic consumption and is premised instead on a) robust export growth, b) a rebound in construction aided by favorable base effects, c) a revival in private investment and d) (marginally) supportive government spending.


Singapore: Sizable Labour Market Slack Despite Growth Rebound in 2021