SIGA Technologies - Strong order book moving into Q424

SIGA Technologies reported revenues of $10m in Q324, attributed primarily to deliveries under the $112.5m BARDA option, exercised in July 2024. Backed by a strong order book ($146m at end-Q324), the sales momentum has picked up pace in Q424 with another $51.2m and $8.5m of oral and IV TPOXX (IVT) delivered to the Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) in October 2024. We expect further deliveries in Q424 and early 2025 under the BARDA contract as well as the $9m US Department of Defense (DoD) order received in August 2024. Q424 also marked SIGA’s first commercial foray into Africa (delivering oral TPOXX to Morocco worth c $0.8m), capped by in-licensing of a novel preclinical monoclonal antibody from Vanderbilt University to complement TPOXX in targeting orthopox viruses. We await further updates on the PEP label expansion and mpox trials but conservatively adjust our estimates to reflect results from the PALM 007 study. Our valuation adjusts to $13.93/share from $15.89/share previously.