SIGA Technologies - Solid Q322, underpinned by international traction

SIGA reported robust Q322 results, with sales momentum driven by international deliveries of oral TPOXX as governments expedited stockpiling to manage the monkeypox threat. Of the $77m in international orders received year to date, $61m was delivered in Q322 (93% of total product sales) following $5m in Q222. The company benefited from higher international sales margins, leading to a 59.7% reported operating margin. We estimate a strong FY23 for SIGA, with BARDA deliveries for oral and IV TPOXX and upside optionality from additional/recurring government contracts and label expansion opportunities in the domestic markets, predicated on the success of the recently initiated clinical trials in monkeypox. Our valuation is largely unchanged at $19.64/share.