Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Shinoken (8909) MBO - Decent Premium, Still Light, Will Someone Push?

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinoken-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17040:1" rel="noopener">Shinoken Group (8909 JP)</a> - short for Shinohara Kensetsu - was founded 30 years ago by Hideaki Shinohara who set up the company as a 25-year old after starting a few years earlier at a real estate company. The company has grown from something small to something relatively large and the company has been aggressive. It makes most of its money through real estate sales and service, and some money through self-contracting. There are other businesses which are quite decent and could get better - add-ons to the real estate service business which has been a real winner. Over the years, the company has grown through both organic growth and M&amp;A. About 55% of net sales and 50% of Operating Income is through organic businesses. And the growth shown indicates that the company has been able to integrate some of these businesses quite successfully. Since 2017, the plan has been to move a great deal of the business away from real estate sales and more towards real estate service. They've done that pretty well (real estate sales was 77% of revenues in 2017, 48% last year)The New News on the 12th of February was that the company reported full-year profits and a <a href="https://www.shinoken.co.jp/presses/get_img/521/file1_path/20210212_521.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">forecast</a> for 2021 where revenue was set to grow 10% but OP and NP were set to grow 0.2% and 0.8%, respectively.

Shinoken Group (8909 JP) - short for Shinohara Kensetsu - was founded 30 years ago by Hideaki Shinohara who set up the company as a 25-year old after starting a few years earlier at a real estate company. The company has grown from something small to something relatively large and the company has been aggressive. It makes most of its money through real estate sales and service, and some money through self-contracting. There are other businesses which are quite decent and could get better - add-ons to the real estate service business which has been a real winner. Over the years, the company has grown through both organic growth and M&amp;A. About 55% of net sales and 50% of Operating Income is through organic businesses. And the growth shown indicates that the company has been able to integrate some of these businesses quite successfully. Since 2017, the plan has been to move a great deal of the business away from real estate sales and more towards real estate service. They've done that pretty well (real estate sales was 77% of revenues in 2017, 48% last year)The New News on the 12th of February was that the company reported full-year profits and a forecast for 2021 where revenue was set to grow 10% but OP and NP were set to grow 0.2% and 0.8%, respectively. 

Shinoken (8909) - Cheap Stock, Growth Lag, Governance Hiccup: "Gift" To Foundation Unlikely to Pass