Shield Therapeutics - Focus on increasing US market access

Shield Therapeutics’ (STX) value stems from Accrufer’s US market opportunity as the company seeks to maximise returns through self-commercialisation. Recent progress on payer coverage and prescription uplift bodes well for future US expansion, although we expect a more modest growth trajectory than previously as STX focuses on expanding market outreach. The successful execution of its commercial plans relies on adequate fund-raising, which remains challenging in the current macro environment. The recent $10m convertible shareholder loan extends the cash runway into early FY23, but a further £25m would be required to break even, according to our estimates. We have introduced more conservatism in our estimates and as a result our valuation resets to £371.0m or 172p/share (previously £631.3m or 293p/share).