Shield Therapeutics - Delivering what the doctor ordered

Shield Therapeutics’ US commercialisation efforts continue to gather steam, with prescription volumes gearing up in Q323 (27,750 prescriptions, a 76% sequential growth over Q2 and higher than the combined H123 figure of 26,284) and net selling price making a strong recovery after dipping in H123 (+24% to $148/prescription). US revenues grew to $4.1m, higher than the combined H1 figure of $3.7m. First-time prescribers grew 27% q-o-q and new prescriptions were up by 87%. More encouragingly, the clinical utility of Accrufer continues to be considered favourably by prescribers, reflected in the 77% repeat writers from Q223. Management has guided for FY23 total prescriptions to be between 100k and 130k, requiring a sequential growth of 65.6% at the lower end, which we see as undemanding given the Q3 run rate and growing momentum (as the expanded salesforce gets more entrenched). We maintain our full-year estimates and continue to value the company at £390.4m.