Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Nicolas Baratte has been a financial analyst since 2000, covering the Semiconductor sector and Global Technology. Nicolas has worked on the sell-side for JPMorgan, CLSA. On the buy-side for a Tiger fund and Prudential. Nicolas has covered semiconductors, Asian hardware and components, and the Global Tech supply chain. Nicolas lives mostly in Taiwan, sometimes in France and is in New York regularly.

Where Are We Now? Index Valuations, Earnings Expectations, Where the Bottom Could Be?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Macau Semiconductors and semiconductor equipment / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Global Semi revenues are good, up 17% YoY, on a plateau of high growth (~20%) for the 14th month. But worries about potential tariffs have boosted demand since Nov-24. </li>
<li>Building up precautionary inventory ahead of tariffs could morph into the opposite from April-25: if you now expect demand destruction, you’ll squeezing down inventories as much as possible. </li>
<li>This is where the 2008-9 period is instructive. Semi revenues contracted by an average -20% YoY for a long period of 12 months (Nov-08 to Oct-09). </li>
</ul>


Global Semi revenues are good, up 17% YoY, on a plateau of high growth (~20%) for the 14th month. But worries about potential tariffs have boosted demand since Nov-24. 
Building up precautionary inventory ahead of tariffs could morph into the opposite from April-25: if you now expect demand destruction, you’ll squeezing down inventories as much as possible. 
This is where the 2008-9 period is instructive. Semi revenues contracted by an average -20% YoY for a long period of 12 months (Nov-08 to Oct-09). 


Semi Revenues: Feb-25 Revenues Are Good. Let’s Have a Look Back at 2008-09 for a Worst-Case Scenario