ASEAN (Indo) & China-focused. Ex-Deputy HoR UBS.

Johannes Salim, CFA

Event-Driven

PT Solusi Bangun Indonesia Tbk / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Despite regulatory risk appearing high at first glance, we think that the likelihood of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11161" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11161:1">Semen Indonesia Persero Tbk (SMGR IJ)</a> acquiring <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3671" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3671:1">Holcim Indonesia (SMCB IJ)</a> to go through is high. </li>
<li>Subsequently, mandatory tender offer (MTO) for SMCB's minority shareholders would proceed immediately post M&amp;A deal completion. </li>
<li>We estimate a good 6-11% pa merger-arbitrage trade return (after netting off 5% currency swap cost) for SMCB MTO.</li>
</ul>


Despite regulatory risk appearing high at first glance, we think that the likelihood of Semen Indonesia Persero Tbk (SMGR IJ) acquiring Holcim Indonesia (SMCB IJ) to go through is high. 
Subsequently, mandatory tender offer (MTO) for SMCB's minority shareholders would proceed immediately post M&amp;A deal completion. 
We estimate a good 6-11% pa merger-arbitrage trade return (after netting off 5% currency swap cost) for SMCB MTO.


Semen Indo - Holcim Indo M&A: Real Regulatory Risk Much Lower Than Perceived