Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Seibu Holdings - Asset Heavy To Asset Lighter if Not Fully Asset Light

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

Today after the close, in announcing Q3 earnings, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seibu-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:458:1" rel="noopener">Seibu Holdings (9024 JP)</a> also <a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/9024/announcement8/55973/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a short, sharp, sweet share buyback. This share buyback, with up to ¥15 billion to spend to purchase up to 9 million shares is 50% larger than the previous buyback launched in November 2018. If fully complete, it would mean buying 2.71% of shares outstanding. Given that this buyback announcement accompanied a slightly disappointing quarter and a fiscal year forecast revision downward in Revenues, OP, and Net Profit, there is a possibility that the stock falls far enough that they could buy the whole 9 million shares.But I don't expect that to be a high probability. I expect the shares to react more to the buyback than to the forecast reduction. This could be a fun one.

Today after the close, in announcing Q3 earnings, Seibu Holdings (9024 JP) also announced a short, sharp, sweet share buyback. This share buyback, with up to ¥15 billion to spend to purchase up to 9 million shares is 50% larger than the previous buyback launched in November 2018. If fully complete, it would mean buying 2.71% of shares outstanding. Given that this buyback announcement accompanied a slightly disappointing quarter and a fiscal year forecast revision downward in Revenues, OP, and Net Profit, there is a possibility that the stock falls far enough that they could buy the whole 9 million shares.But I don't expect that to be a high probability. I expect the shares to react more to the buyback than to the forecast reduction. This could be a fun one.

Seibu Holdings Buyback - Short Sharp (Stonking) Sweet