Secure Trust Bank - Revised forecasts reflect macro concerns

We are adjusting our forecasts for Secure Trust Bank (STB) to better reflect the deteriorating economic outlook in the UK. We have raised our FY22 forecast for PBT from continuing operations by 1%, but reduce it by 15% in FY23. Lower loan growth in 2023 is the key driver; we now estimate growth of 13% in FY22 and 7% in FY23. The impairment charge rate for FY23 has been upped from 1.3% to 1.4%. We have also raised our run-off cost estimates in discontinued operations by £2.6m and £2.0m for FY22 and FY23. Despite our lower FY23 forecasts, the estimated ROE of 9% in both years shows strong business resilience given the cyclical nature of the banking sector. We have maintained a dividend payout ratio of 25% in line with to company policy. STB’s capital position remains comfortable with a CET1 ratio of 14.2% in FY22 and 13.7% in FY23.