Secure Trust Bank - FY21 earnings beat with momentum

Secure Trust Bank (STB) reported FY21 PBT of £56.0m (£57.4m normalised, we forecast £52.7m) and a ROE of 15.9%. The beat was driven by provision reversions: the loan loss ratio was 0.1% versus 0.3%. The numbers otherwise were in line with our expectations. Revenue was flat year-on-year, but pre-provisions profit fell by 18% since costs rose 12% as STB invested for growth. We are forecasting 15–17% annual loan growth for FY22–23 as management sees good risk-adjusted opportunities despite the inflation uncertainty. This is backed by a strong capital base (CET1 14.5%) and good returns (forecast ROE of 10.2% and 12.3% for FY22e and FY23e). We have increased our fair value to 2,491p/share (from 2,234p) mainly due to rolling the model forward one year.