Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

United states Semiconductors and semiconductor equipment / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li><a href="https://semianalysis.com/2024/12/11/scaling-laws-o1-pro-architecture-reasoning-training-infrastructure-orion-and-claude-3-5-opus-failures/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Technological model scaling is not dead,</a> but we are clearly at a critical moment when the definitions will shift.</li><li>Pre-training, <a href="https://x.com/fchollet/status/1869051991743439028" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the original scaling law</a>, might hit its first diminishing return. The piece SemiAnalysis used the analogy that pre-training was like the end of Dennard’s law.</li><li>However, multi-core scaling led to another decade of scaling transistors. Technology progresses, just not in the same way.</li></ul>

Technological model scaling is not dead, but we are clearly at a critical moment when the definitions will shift.Pre-training, the original scaling law, might hit its first diminishing return. The piece SemiAnalysis used the analogy that pre-training was like the end of Dennard’s law.However, multi-core scaling led to another decade of scaling transistors. Technology progresses, just not in the same way.

Scaling Laws Meet Economics, but Adoption is still Accelerating