Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Sawada (8699 JP) Sells A Big Asset at > 2.5x Book; Now New Directors and New Advisory Board

Sawada/HS (8699) - A NON-Salutary Development

Sawada/HS Holdings (8699) - A Quite Salutary Development.. And We Wait...

Be Careful of Expectations on Sawada (8699)

Sawada (8699) - Upsilon To End Its Tender, and Khan Bank Applies to List

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

In early July, after not quite 16 months of not getting approval from the Central Bank of Mongolia to purchase more than 50% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sawada-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7311:1" rel="noopener">Sawada Holdings (8699 JP)</a> from existing shareholders, in part due to a lack of appropriate preparation and adequate advice, and in part due to a change in the law regarding Mongolian banks which affected the regime by which shareholding is structured on significant Mongolian banks - of which Sawada's subsidiary Khan Bank LLC is the most significant, would be buyer Upsilon Investment Partners walked away from its Tender Offer. This was discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sawada-8699-upsilon-to-end-its-tender-and-khan-bank-applies-to-list" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53957" rel="noopener">Sawada (8699) - Upsilon To End Its Tender, and Khan Bank Applies to List</a>.The rule changes earlier in 2021 required that any significant shareholder in Sawada who had increased their stake above 20%* after the 2010 Banking Law amendment were required to sell down after obtaining permission to do so, and subsequently required Khan Bank to come up with a plan to list itself, and to see its stake reduced below 20%* by mid 2022. <div class="content-remarks">* Absolutely coincidentally (I believe), Upsilon is the 20th letter in the greek alphabet. </div>This caused considerable upheaval in the share price as the second largest investor sold down their stake from the high 20%s level to near zero in just a few months. The rule change early in the year caused a sharp drop. The 16th of March saw the release of a <a href="http://www.sawada-holdings.co.jp/wp/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/shdpress20210316.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">statement</a> by Sawada detailing the Mongolian Central Bank's demands. After the major shareholder received permission to sell their stake down further. They sold, and the volume spike on a price drop then subsequent bounce saw the transfer of roughly 25% of the shares out and 50% of the float from one shareholder to others. <section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/233/019/original/Screenshot+2021-10-01+at+7.37.37+PM.png?1633088272" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="233019"></figure></section>Despite warnings that shareholdings above 5% might trigger a requirement to get permission, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-trust-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20246:1" rel="noopener">J Trust Co Ltd (8508 JP)</a> bought a large portion of shares sold in the market, reaching a stake of 14.39% as of mid-June. On July 2, Upsilon asked investors not to tender. On 17 July, the tender offer completed, without Upsilon getting to the minimum stake required under the conditions. At the end of July, Khan Bank reported excellent H1 results, and in mid-August, Sawada Holdings <a href="http://www.sawada-holdings.co.jp/wp/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/shdpress20210817.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> that Khan Bank had submitted its Listing Plan to regulators. The play, as it stood until Friday October 1st, was that investors in Sawada at say ¥950-1050/share were long a stock with a 60% stake in a Mongolian bank which where the stake would need to be sold down within 9 months, plus a hodgepodge of other interests. On October 1 2021, that changed somewhat.Upsilon has just bought ~33% of Sawada.

In early July, after not quite 16 months of not getting approval from the Central Bank of Mongolia to purchase more than 50% of Sawada Holdings (8699 JP) from existing shareholders, in part due to a lack of appropriate preparation and adequate advice, and in part due to a change in the law regarding Mongolian banks which affected the regime by which shareholding is structured on significant Mongolian banks - of which Sawada's subsidiary Khan Bank LLC is the most significant, would be buyer Upsilon Investment Partners walked away from its Tender Offer. This was discussed in Sawada (8699) - Upsilon To End Its Tender, and Khan Bank Applies to List.The rule changes earlier in 2021 required that any significant shareholder in Sawada who had increased their stake above 20%* after the 2010 Banking Law amendment were required to sell down after obtaining permission to do so, and subsequently required Khan Bank to come up with a plan to list itself, and to see its stake reduced below 20%* by mid 2022. * Absolutely coincidentally (I believe), Upsilon is the 20th letter in the greek alphabet. This caused considerable upheaval in the share price as the second largest investor sold down their stake from the high 20%s level to near zero in just a few months. The rule change early in the year caused a sharp drop. The 16th of March saw the release of a statement by Sawada detailing the Mongolian Central Bank's demands. After the major shareholder received permission to sell their stake down further. They sold, and the volume spike on a price drop then subsequent bounce saw the transfer of roughly 25% of the shares out and 50% of the float from one shareholder to others. Despite warnings that shareholdings above 5% might trigger a requirement to get permission, J Trust Co Ltd (8508 JP) bought a large portion of shares sold in the market, reaching a stake of 14.39% as of mid-June. On July 2, Upsilon asked investors not to tender. On 17 July, the tender offer completed, without Upsilon getting to the minimum stake required under the conditions. At the end of July, Khan Bank reported excellent H1 results, and in mid-August, Sawada Holdings reported that Khan Bank had submitted its Listing Plan to regulators. The play, as it stood until Friday October 1st, was that investors in Sawada at say ¥950-1050/share were long a stock with a 60% stake in a Mongolian bank which where the stake would need to be sold down within 9 months, plus a hodgepodge of other interests. On October 1 2021, that changed somewhat.Upsilon has just bought ~33% of Sawada. 

Sawada - Upsilon Gets Its Stake And Still We Wait