Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Sawada Holdings - Change of Paradigm Means Opportunity

Sawada (8699 JP) Stuck Between Mongolian Central Bank Idealism and Reality

Sawada Gets Some Good News - Expect a Selldown

Sawada Holdings (8699) Partial Tender. Delayed Again. 13th Time a Charm?

Sawada Holdings Partial Offer Update - It's a Buy Here

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<p>In my last insight on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sawada-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7311:1" rel="noopener">Sawada Holdings (8699 JP)</a> I wondered whether the 13th time was charmed. That was just after the Meta Capital partial Tender Offer for Sawada Holdings had been extended a 13th time. </p><p>Spoiler. It wasn't. Since then it has been extended three more times, with <a href="https://disclosure.edinet-fsa.go.jp/E01EW/BLMainController.jsp?uji.verb=W00Z1020initialize&amp;uji.bean=ek.bean.EKW00Z1020Bean&amp;TID=W00Z1020&amp;PID=W1E63041&amp;SESSIONKEY=1600894852849&amp;lgKbn=2&amp;dflg=0&amp;iflg=null&amp;row=100&amp;idx=0&amp;str=&amp;kbn=1&amp;flg=&amp;syoruiKanriNo=S100JQCR" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the most recent extension</a> coming on the 18th of September. </p><p>The Tender Offer is, after 16 extensions, currently set to close on 6 October (153 business days).</p><p>The most recent extension notes that a few days prior, Khan Bank had received a notice from the Central Bank of Mongolia saying that the Tender Offeror had not submitted sufficient information for the Central Bank to grant "pre-approval." That statement noted that when the Acquirer had been asked on 11 August to submit additional information in the most recent filing, they had not submitted all the information which was requested. That led to an expedited effort to supply the additional information but when the most recent missive of 15 September arrived, the Tender Offeror has now decided that pre-approval may not be obtained.</p><p>The Offeror is now studying what measures they should take in light of this situation. They seem not to have a direct line into the Bank of Mongolia, which is strange after all these months.</p><p>It seems un-professional at best and they seem to have dug themselves into a hole. </p><h2>The NEW News</h2><p>The NEW News is that Sawada Holdings itself has <em>finally</em> issued a press release with an opinion statement regarding the Tender Offer. As a reminder, on the 26th of February, then again on the 16th of March 2020, Sawada Holdings Board decided to withhold its opinion on the Tender Offer pending some kind of resolution on the Tender Offer and its required approvals.</p><p>SEVEN MONTHS LATER WE HAVE AN OPINION STATEMENT.</p><div class="content-highlight">
<p>The Target Company has come out to say that the believe that the Tender Offeror will be unable to obtain prior approval from the Central Bank of Mongolia to acquire the shares of Sawada Holdings in a Tender Offer and control a significant stake in Khan Bank LLC. Sawada Holdings' Board has come out AGAINST the Tender Offer. </p>
<p>Oops. </p>
</div><p>Sawada has, once again, thoroughly thrown the Acquirers under the bus. </p><p>This, however, makes the Tender Offer more difficult to get done because of who agreed to tender and whose name is on the door.</p><p>More below the fold.</p><hr><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" style="width: 725px;"><h3>Previous Insights in the Series</h3></td></tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 120px;"><strong>Date</strong></td>
<td style="width: 583.75px;"><strong>Title</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 120px;">20 February 2020</td>
<td style="width: 583.75px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sawada-holdings-partial-tender-an-odd-duck" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:36802" rel="noopener">Sawada Holdings Partial Tender - An Odd Duck</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 120px;">26 February 2020</td>
<td style="width: 583.75px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sawada-holdings-partial-offer-arb-grids-pro-ration" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37141" rel="noopener">Sawada Holdings Partial Offer - Arb Grids &amp; Pro-Ration</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 120px;">3 March 2020</td>
<td style="width: 583.75px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sawada-withholds-opinion-on-tob-mongolia-deal-risk-may-exist" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:36959" rel="noopener">Sawada Withholds Opinion on TOB - Mongolia Deal Risk May Exist</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 120px;">10 March 2020</td>
<td style="width: 583.75px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sawada-holdings-partial-offer-update-it-s-a-buy-here" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37345" rel="noopener">Sawada Holdings Partial Offer Update - It's a Buy Here</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 120px;">24 March 2020</td>
<td style="width: 583.75px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sawada-holdings-tender-holding-pattern" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37764" rel="noopener">Sawada Holdings Tender Holding Pattern</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 120px;">13 August 2020</td>
<td style="width: 583.75px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sawada-holdings-8699-partial-tender-delayed-again-13th-time-a-charm" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42124" rel="noopener">Sawada Holdings (8699) Partial Tender. Delayed Again. 13th Time a Charm?</a> </td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>

In my last insight on Sawada Holdings (8699 JP) I wondered whether the 13th time was charmed. That was just after the Meta Capital partial Tender Offer for Sawada Holdings had been extended a 13th time. Spoiler. It wasn't. Since then it has been extended three more times, with the most recent extension coming on the 18th of September. The Tender Offer is, after 16 extensions, currently set to close on 6 October (153 business days).The most recent extension notes that a few days prior, Khan Bank had received a notice from the Central Bank of Mongolia saying that the Tender Offeror had not submitted sufficient information for the Central Bank to grant "pre-approval." That statement noted that when the Acquirer had been asked on 11 August to submit additional information in the most recent filing, they had not submitted all the information which was requested. That led to an expedited effort to supply the additional information but when the most recent missive of 15 September arrived, the Tender Offeror has now decided that pre-approval may not be obtained.The Offeror is now studying what measures they should take in light of this situation. They seem not to have a direct line into the Bank of Mongolia, which is strange after all these months.It seems un-professional at best and they seem to have dug themselves into a hole. The NEW NewsThe NEW News is that Sawada Holdings itself has finally issued a press release with an opinion statement regarding the Tender Offer. As a reminder, on the 26th of February, then again on the 16th of March 2020, Sawada Holdings Board decided to withhold its opinion on the Tender Offer pending some kind of resolution on the Tender Offer and its required approvals.SEVEN MONTHS LATER WE HAVE AN OPINION STATEMENT.
The Target Company has come out to say that the believe that the Tender Offeror will be unable to obtain prior approval from the Central Bank of Mongolia to acquire the shares of Sawada Holdings in a Tender Offer and control a significant stake in Khan Bank LLC. Sawada Holdings' Board has come out AGAINST the Tender Offer. 
Oops. 
Sawada has, once again, thoroughly thrown the Acquirers under the bus. This, however, makes the Tender Offer more difficult to get done because of who agreed to tender and whose name is on the door.More below the fold.
Previous Insights in the Series

Date
Title


20 February 2020

Sawada Holdings Partial Tender - An Odd Duck 


26 February 2020

Sawada Holdings Partial Offer - Arb Grids &amp; Pro-Ration 


3 March 2020

Sawada Withholds Opinion on TOB - Mongolia Deal Risk May Exist 


10 March 2020

Sawada Holdings Partial Offer Update - It's a Buy Here 


24 March 2020

Sawada Holdings Tender Holding Pattern 


13 August 2020

Sawada Holdings (8699) Partial Tender. Delayed Again. 13th Time a Charm? 



HS Holdings

Sawada Holdings - Still A Long But...