New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

Forsyth Barr

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Equity Bottom-Up

<h2>Santa's Stocking<br>What's in Store for Christmas?</h2>
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<p>Retailers have endured yet another challenging year, but they&nbsp;remain optimistic that consumer spend will strengthen throughout&nbsp;the Christmas period. November card spending data from Stats NZ suggest&nbsp;Kiwis are off to a good start,&nbsp;with core retail spend growing ~+2% on the prior year, led by spend on durables, up ~+11%.&nbsp;That said, we are mindful&nbsp;of&nbsp;next year as the dust settles on the holiday season and,&nbsp;in particular, how consumer spend will react as households feel the impact of rising interest rates and a potential reallocation of spend to services. Cost-conscious customers are likely to focus on value for money and trusted brands, in our view.&nbsp;</p>
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<h3>Retail trends and themes into Christmas</h3>
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<ul>
<li>​​​​​​​<span style="text-decoration: underline;">Digital presence</span>: Online ordering is becoming increasingly popular with New Zealanders —&nbsp;NZ Post's October&nbsp;eCommerce&nbsp;spotlight highlighted that 17% of all retail spend was online (second only to April 2020). Click &amp; collect offerings are also proving popular, allowing consumers to avoid postal delays.&nbsp;</li>
<li><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Congested supply chains</span>: Pressure on supply chains has refused to abate and looks set to continue into the new year, making it challenging for retailers to manage inventory. PriceSpy data show that computers &amp; accessories, sports &amp; outdoors, games &amp; consoles, and audio &amp; video have the highest proportion of out-of-stock items.</li>
<li><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Shopping earlier</span>:&nbsp;MYOB's&nbsp;Consumer Snapshot survey found that 29% of consumers planned to start their Christmas shopping earlier than last year, with&nbsp; 62% concerned about supply and 37% wishing to take advantage of sales.</li>
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<h3>What's on the Christmas shopping list?</h3>
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<p>For those of you who have left Christmas shopping to the last minute (or whose packages are looking increasingly unlikely to make it in time for the big day)&nbsp;we share our in-depth analysis of this seasons top sellers:</p>
<ul>
<li><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Airfryer:</span> Fryers gained popularity to help the time fry during lockdown and PriceSpy data suggest they are the top trending shopping category for Christmas. Perhaps the&nbsp;airfryer&nbsp;sub-category (as the low fat option) might be best to avoid&nbsp;adding to any<br>lockdown&nbsp;pounds.</li>
<li><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Apple&nbsp;AirPods&nbsp;Pro:</span> PriceSpy's top pick in the gadgets category and perfect to block out (home)office chatter.</li>
<li><span style="text-decoration: underline;">eScooter:</span>&nbsp;Another popular product according to&nbsp;PriceSpy&nbsp;data and a more leisurely commute than biking into work.</li>
<li><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Hygiene hamper</span>: Perfect for the&nbsp;Aucklanders&nbsp;who may&nbsp;have gotten all too comfortable with the low-maintenance, WFH&nbsp;look and are now in desperate need of deodorant, razors, skincare&nbsp;and soap. Or perhaps just a shaver for the&nbsp;lockdown&nbsp;hairdressers looking to upgrade (corporate mullet anyone?).</li>
</ul>
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Santa's Stocking What's in Store for Christmas?


Retailers have endured yet another challenging year, but they&nbsp;remain optimistic that consumer spend will strengthen throughout&nbsp;the Christmas period. November card spending data from Stats NZ suggest&nbsp;Kiwis are off to a good start,&nbsp;with core retail spend growing ~+2% on the prior year, led by spend on durables, up ~+11%.&nbsp;That said, we are mindful&nbsp;of&nbsp;next year as the dust settles on the holiday season and,&nbsp;in particular, how consumer spend will react as households feel the impact of rising interest rates and a potential reallocation of spend to services. Cost-conscious customers are likely to focus on value for money and trusted brands, in our view.&nbsp;


Retail trends and themes into Christmas



​​​​​​​Digital presence: Online ordering is becoming increasingly popular with New Zealanders —&nbsp;NZ Post's October&nbsp;eCommerce&nbsp;spotlight highlighted that 17% of all retail spend was online (second only to April 2020). Click &amp; collect offerings are also proving popular, allowing consumers to avoid postal delays.&nbsp;
Congested supply chains: Pressure on supply chains has refused to abate and looks set to continue into the new year, making it challenging for retailers to manage inventory. PriceSpy data show that computers &amp; accessories, sports &amp; outdoors, games &amp; consoles, and audio &amp; video have the highest proportion of out-of-stock items.
Shopping earlier:&nbsp;MYOB's&nbsp;Consumer Snapshot survey found that 29% of consumers planned to start their Christmas shopping earlier than last year, with&nbsp; 62% concerned about supply and 37% wishing to take advantage of sales.



What's on the Christmas shopping list?


For those of you who have left Christmas shopping to the last minute (or whose packages are looking increasingly unlikely to make it in time for the big day)&nbsp;we share our in-depth analysis of this seasons top sellers:

Airfryer: Fryers gained popularity to help the time fry during lockdown and PriceSpy data suggest they are the top trending shopping category for Christmas. Perhaps the&nbsp;airfryer&nbsp;sub-category (as the low fat option) might be best to avoid&nbsp;adding to any lockdown&nbsp;pounds.
Apple&nbsp;AirPods&nbsp;Pro: PriceSpy's top pick in the gadgets category and perfect to block out (home)office chatter.
eScooter:&nbsp;Another popular product according to&nbsp;PriceSpy&nbsp;data and a more leisurely commute than biking into work.
Hygiene hamper: Perfect for the&nbsp;Aucklanders&nbsp;who may&nbsp;have gotten all too comfortable with the low-maintenance, WFH&nbsp;look and are now in desperate need of deodorant, razors, skincare&nbsp;and soap. Or perhaps just a shaver for the&nbsp;lockdown&nbsp;hairdressers looking to upgrade (corporate mullet anyone?).




Santa's Stocking: What's in Store for Christmas?

Kathmandu Holdings

Santa's Stocking: What's in Store for Christmas?