Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Over 15 years analysing Japanese and Asian stocks from a long/short perspective

I focus on cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos

An eclectic background as a long-short analyst, upper management at a financial data startup through its listing, and as the founder of a team analysing big/alternative data, all of which supports independent and differentiated views... we hope

An appreciation for Mathematics drives the development of a "Micro-Quantamental" process which can provide a data-driven, historically-informed and semi-automated foundation upon which to layer more qualitative and judgemental analysis, thus improving investment decision-making speed and accuracy

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Safie IPO – First Day Trading – Stay Safie

Safie – Overreaction to Specific Distributor Issue

Safie – Baby Thrown Out With the Bathwater Number Two

Appier – Baby Thrown Out With the Bathwater Number One

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Safie’s 1Q results disappointed the market as revenue came in 5% lower than the average of two consensus estimates and R&amp;D expense surged. </li>
<li>Nevertheless, 1Q should be the worst quarter of the year as downside from the specific distributor issue is now quantifiable and the stock is now on 2.5x 2022 EV/Sales. </li>
<li>Valuations are already highly compelling and if the sentiment driven sell off continues we would be looking for 5-10x returns over a 3-4 year timeframe.</li>
</ul>


Safie’s 1Q results disappointed the market as revenue came in 5% lower than the average of two consensus estimates and R&amp;D expense surged. 
Nevertheless, 1Q should be the worst quarter of the year as downside from the specific distributor issue is now quantifiable and the stock is now on 2.5x 2022 EV/Sales. 
Valuations are already highly compelling and if the sentiment driven sell off continues we would be looking for 5-10x returns over a 3-4 year timeframe.


Safie – Cost Overshoot Could Drive This Lower But…