S&U - Anticipating regulatory clarity in H2

S&U’s H1 trading statement revealed similar trends to those in Q1. Advantage Finance remains in a consolidation phase amid industry discussions with the FCA on collections procedures and forbearance. The collection rate slipped slightly from 88% in Q1 to 87% for the half year. In contrast, Aspen Bridging continues to grow healthily with receivables up 13% since year-end, ‘excellent’ credit quality and a strong pipeline. Significantly, S&U describes the negotiations with the FCA as ‘nearing their conclusion’, which suggests there is potential for recovery at Advantage in H2. The latest 25bp base rate cut will also feed into H2 profitability as all debt is variable and unhedged. We maintain our estimates, which exclude any potential cost of redress, with more detail on the outlook likely to be disclosed at the half-year results on 8 October.