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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The dramatic defeat of PM May's Brexit arrangement with the EU was seen by the markets as a positive development. Apparently the markets believe that this could result in Britain remaining in the EU.While we agree this would be good news we consider it unlikely without many more months or years of uncertainty as another referendum is organized and implemented.Romania: GDP in Q3 grew 4.4% y/y, up from 4.1% in Q2. The country’s economy is doing better than most EU countries. Brazil: The CPI in Dec rose 3.7%, down from 4.05% in Nov. Lowest rate since May, as prices slowed for food and fuel. India: The trade deficit in Dec narrowed to $13.1 bn. Exports rose a meager 0.3% and imports fell 2.44%. GDP growth of 7% is expected for this year and next..

The dramatic defeat of PM May's Brexit arrangement with the EU was seen by the markets as a positive development. Apparently the markets believe that this could result in Britain remaining in the EU.While we agree this would be good news we consider it unlikely without many more months or years of uncertainty as another referendum is organized and implemented.Romania: GDP in Q3 grew 4.4% y/y, up from 4.1% in Q2. The country’s economy is doing better than most EU countries. Brazil: The CPI in Dec rose 3.7%, down from 4.05% in Nov. Lowest rate since May, as prices slowed for food and fuel. India: The trade deficit in Dec narrowed to $13.1 bn. Exports rose a meager 0.3% and imports fell 2.44%. GDP growth of 7% is expected for this year and next..

RRG Global Macro Weekly - Dramatic Brexit Defeat A Positive for Markets? We Are Not So Sanguine