Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Ricoh Buyback Redux - It's On, It's Big. Crossholders Vs Activist Vs Public. Who Sells?

Japan Corporate Governance - Ricoh - Lacking Board Skills?

Ricoh's BIG Buyback Potential - The Timing Is Right

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

On 19 April I wrote about Ricoh's big buyback potential, saying the timing was right in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ricoh-s-big-buyback-potential-the-timing-is-right" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:38518" rel="noopener">Ricoh's BIG Buyback Potential - The Timing Is Right</a>. I followed up three weeks later with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ricoh-redux-get-long-vs-comps" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:39155" rel="noopener">Ricoh Redux:  Get Long Vs Comps</a> just before the earnings announcement which I expected would deliver on the share buyback. We didn't get it. No buyback. And there was no earnings forecast for the year to March 2021. Talk in the meeting and presentation about how orders were OK but deliveries in Europe weren't because of the lockdown rules so who knew when things would come back to normal. The "new normal" of WFH had not made the outlook better. The stock itself rose sharply despite the lack of guidance, but has since fallen back to below March 2020 "covid-crash" lows. <section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/165/504/original/Screenshot%202020-10-16%20at%2010.19.40%20AM.png?1602814817" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="165504"></figure></section>Since April 17 and May 8, TOPIX is up 13% and 12%, TOPIX Electrical Appliances is up 22.5% and 18.3%, and TOPIX Precision Instruments is up 16.1% and 19.0%. Ricoh, on the other hand, is -9.4% and -12.8% now. But the trade was to buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ricoh-company-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15359:1" rel="noopener">Ricoh Company Ltd (7752 JP)</a> against a basket of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1" rel="noopener">Canon Inc (7751 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/konica-minolta-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17287:1" rel="noopener">Konica Minolta (4902 JP)</a>. That trade has done well at +26.2% and +19.6% in 23 weeks and 21 weeks respectively.  The question is what does one do now.

On 19 April I wrote about Ricoh's big buyback potential, saying the timing was right in Ricoh's BIG Buyback Potential - The Timing Is Right. I followed up three weeks later with Ricoh Redux:  Get Long Vs Comps just before the earnings announcement which I expected would deliver on the share buyback. We didn't get it. No buyback. And there was no earnings forecast for the year to March 2021. Talk in the meeting and presentation about how orders were OK but deliveries in Europe weren't because of the lockdown rules so who knew when things would come back to normal. The "new normal" of WFH had not made the outlook better. The stock itself rose sharply despite the lack of guidance, but has since fallen back to below March 2020 "covid-crash" lows. Since April 17 and May 8, TOPIX is up 13% and 12%, TOPIX Electrical Appliances is up 22.5% and 18.3%, and TOPIX Precision Instruments is up 16.1% and 19.0%. Ricoh, on the other hand, is -9.4% and -12.8% now. But the trade was to buy Ricoh Company Ltd (7752 JP) against a basket of Canon Inc (7751 JP) and Konica Minolta (4902 JP). That trade has done well at +26.2% and +19.6% in 23 weeks and 21 weeks respectively.  The question is what does one do now.

Ricoh (Reductively) - Reduced Bullishness So Take Off the Trade