Per Gullberg, CFA, FRM, CAIA

Event-Driven

Wha Industrial Development / Event-Driven

Recent weak market performance &nbsp;has seen the Hemaraj Land (HEMRAJ) spread widen out, and the lack of transparency into the progress of the prerequisite share acquisition transaction with major shareholders has done little to mitigate concerns.Offeror WHA Corporation (WHA) has clarified that it intends to finance a part of the deal consideration with an equity raising. This could potentially be a risk, if the recent market weakness resumes . The deal is also conditional on debt financing being granted, meaning additional risk exposure to any turbulence in capital markets.Nevertheless, at current share price levels we see the implied probability of the deal closing around 60%, and we argue that the true probability is higher, meaning that there is a good reward for the risk in this trade.

Recent weak market performance &nbsp;has seen the Hemaraj Land (HEMRAJ) spread widen out, and the lack of transparency into the progress of the prerequisite share acquisition transaction with major shareholders has done little to mitigate concerns.Offeror WHA Corporation (WHA) has clarified that it intends to finance a part of the deal consideration with an equity raising. This could potentially be a risk, if the recent market weakness resumes . The deal is also conditional on debt financing being granted, meaning additional risk exposure to any turbulence in capital markets.Nevertheless, at current share price levels we see the implied probability of the deal closing around 60%, and we argue that the true probability is higher, meaning that there is a good reward for the risk in this trade.

Reward for risk looking good at these levels