Recruit Holdings: Likely to Reach Full-Year Guidance but Bad News Could Be on the Way

Recruit Holdings: 4Q Results Could Pass as Decent but Things Could Go South From This Point

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 27th May - Recruit, DNP & Dentsu

Recruit Holdings [Alternative Data]: Should the Slowdown in Indeed Warrant a Discount?

Recruit Holdings: Worker Compensations Could Worsen Recruit’s Woes

Recruit Holdings 3Q Update: Risks Have Started to Materialise

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Supun Walpola

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>A slowdown in the HR Technology business, which operates two popular employment websites, indeed.com (Indeed) and glassdoor.com (Glassdoor), is one of many risks for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/recruit-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15070:1" rel="noopener">Recruit Holdings (6098 JP)</a> (Recruit) that we have highlighted in our previous notes.</p><p>Our traffic analysis of Indeed and Glassdoor suggests that HR Technology business revenue growth would be around c.17%-22% YoY in 4Q FY03/20. This is lower than 28.7% YoY last quarter and an average of 53.7% YoY over the past 10 quarters.</p>

A slowdown in the HR Technology business, which operates two popular employment websites, indeed.com (Indeed) and glassdoor.com (Glassdoor), is one of many risks for Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) (Recruit) that we have highlighted in our previous notes.Our traffic analysis of Indeed and Glassdoor suggests that HR Technology business revenue growth would be around c.17%-22% YoY in 4Q FY03/20. This is lower than 28.7% YoY last quarter and an average of 53.7% YoY over the past 10 quarters.

Recruit Holdings [Alternative Data]: Indeed Is Flat Even Before COVID-19 Hits