New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

Forsyth Barr

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Equity Bottom-Up

<h2>Pushpay (PPH) FY22 Result — Initial Impressions</h2>
Pushpay’s (PPH) FY22 result was in-line with tight company guidance, however, the outlook for FY23 was below ours and consensus expectations. We expect consensus downgrades for FY23 as a result.
Outlook
The company provided FY23 guidance of Underlying EBITDA between US$56m to US$61m (-6% at the mid-point versus FY22), versus&nbsp;Visible Alpha consensus ~US$68m and Forsyth Barr estimates US$62m.
Key takeaways:
<ul>
<li>Revenue: Total revenue US$203 was below our expectations US$228m (and consensus US$211m), with lower processing volumes the key driver of the miss. Total volume processed for the year was US$7.6b behind our US$8.0b estimate.</li>
<li>EBITDA: Underlying EBITDA (which excludes the investment in the catholic church initiative ~US$2m) came in at US$62.4m in-line with company guidance (US$61.5m – US$63.5m) and with Forsyth Barr and consensus expectations (~US$62m).</li>
<li>Customer growth: An additional 413 customers were added in the second half, with PPH’s total customer base now at 14,508. The company highlighted that net new customer growth and go-to-market performance during FY22 was below internal expectations.</li>
<li>Catholic segment: PPH continues to view the catholic market as a longer-term growth pathway for the business, PPH now serves 173 Catholic parishes.</li>
<li>Potential takeover: No additional information on the progress of expressions of interest to acquire the company.</li>
<li>Internal restructuring: PPH intends to enter into an internal restructuring, transferring its IP from an NZ Pushpay subsidiary to a US Pushpay subsidiary. This further strengthens our view that PPH may look to de-list and/or list on the US stock exchange.</li>
</ul>
Conference call
Management will host its annual results investor briefing at 11:00am NZT. Dial-in for New Zealand is 0800 453 055 (1800 886 078 for Australia).
Result summary (US$m)
<table class="table table-striped">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 147.8pt; height: 13pt;">
&nbsp;
</td>
<td style="width: 44.8pt; height: 13pt;">
FY21
</td>
<td style="width: 44.8pt; height: 13pt;">
FY22A
</td>
<td style="width: 44.8pt; height: 13pt;">
Chg
</td>
<td style="width: 47.8pt; height: 13pt;">
Forsyth Barr
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 147.8pt; height: 13pt;">
Subscription revenue
</td>
<td style="width: 44.8pt; height: 13pt;">
49
</td>
<td style="width: 44.8pt; height: 13pt;">
61
</td>
<td style="width: 44.8pt; height: 13pt;">
24%
</td>
<td style="width: 47.8pt; height: 13pt;">
56
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 147.8pt; height: 13pt;">
Processing revenue
</td>
<td style="width: 44.8pt; height: 13pt;">
129
</td>
<td style="width: 44.8pt; height: 13pt;">
137
</td>
<td style="width: 44.8pt; height: 13pt;">
6%
</td>
<td style="width: 47.8pt; height: 13pt;">
149
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 147.8pt; height: 13pt;">
Total revenue
</td>
<td style="width: 44.8pt; height: 13pt;">
179
</td>
<td style="width: 44.8pt; height: 13pt;">
203
</td>
<td style="width: 44.8pt; height: 13pt;">
13%
</td>
<td style="width: 47.8pt; height: 13pt;">
228
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 147.8pt; height: 13pt;">
EBITDA
</td>
<td style="width: 44.8pt; height: 13pt;">
59
</td>
<td style="width: 44.8pt; height: 13pt;">
62
</td>
<td style="width: 44.8pt; height: 13pt;">
5%
</td>
<td style="width: 47.8pt; height: 13pt;">
62
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 147.8pt; height: 13pt;">
EBITDA margin (%)
</td>
<td style="width: 44.8pt; height: 13pt;">
33%
</td>
<td style="width: 44.8pt; height: 13pt;">
30%
</td>
<td style="width: 44.8pt; height: 13pt;">
-241bps
</td>
<td style="width: 47.8pt; height: 13pt;">
27%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 147.8pt; height: 13pt;">
NPAT
</td>
<td style="width: 44.8pt; height: 13pt;">
31
</td>
<td style="width: 44.8pt; height: 13pt;">
33
</td>
<td style="width: 44.8pt; height: 13pt;">
7%
</td>
<td style="width: 47.8pt; height: 13pt;">
39
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Source: PPH, Forsyth Barr analysis

Pushpay (PPH) FY22 Result — Initial Impressions
Pushpay’s (PPH) FY22 result was in-line with tight company guidance, however, the outlook for FY23 was below ours and consensus expectations. We expect consensus downgrades for FY23 as a result.
Outlook
The company provided FY23 guidance of Underlying EBITDA between US$56m to US$61m (-6% at the mid-point versus FY22), versus&nbsp;Visible Alpha consensus ~US$68m and Forsyth Barr estimates US$62m.
Key takeaways:

Revenue: Total revenue US$203 was below our expectations US$228m (and consensus US$211m), with lower processing volumes the key driver of the miss. Total volume processed for the year was US$7.6b behind our US$8.0b estimate.
EBITDA: Underlying EBITDA (which excludes the investment in the catholic church initiative ~US$2m) came in at US$62.4m in-line with company guidance (US$61.5m – US$63.5m) and with Forsyth Barr and consensus expectations (~US$62m).
Customer growth: An additional 413 customers were added in the second half, with PPH’s total customer base now at 14,508. The company highlighted that net new customer growth and go-to-market performance during FY22 was below internal expectations.
Catholic segment: PPH continues to view the catholic market as a longer-term growth pathway for the business, PPH now serves 173 Catholic parishes.
Potential takeover: No additional information on the progress of expressions of interest to acquire the company.
Internal restructuring: PPH intends to enter into an internal restructuring, transferring its IP from an NZ Pushpay subsidiary to a US Pushpay subsidiary. This further strengthens our view that PPH may look to de-list and/or list on the US stock exchange.

Conference call
Management will host its annual results investor briefing at 11:00am NZT. Dial-in for New Zealand is 0800 453 055 (1800 886 078 for Australia).
Result summary (US$m)




&nbsp;


FY21


FY22A


Chg


Forsyth Barr




Subscription revenue


49


61


24%


56




Processing revenue


129


137


6%


149




Total revenue


179


203


13%


228




EBITDA


59


62


5%


62




EBITDA margin (%)


33%


30%


-241bps


27%




NPAT


31


33


7%


39




Source: PPH, Forsyth Barr analysis

Pushpay (PPH): FY22 Result — Initial Impressions

Pushpay Holdings

Pushpay (PPH): FY22 Result — Initial Impressions