Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

High Yield Experts

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

Debt Capital Markets

Press Metal Aluminium Holdin / Debt Capital Markets

We view Press Metal as “Medium Risk” on our LARA scale, with the strong financial risk profile and robust partnership with Sumitomo Corporation offsetting the volatile business profile and single-site risk. Press Metal is a small aluminium producer on a global scale, and has limited vertical integration. The company has production concentration risk, as one plant accounts for most of the production. It has a low-cost advantage, thanks to a fixed long-term PPA with a hydropower plant. It currently has no expansion plans and is thus producing meaningful FCF, which could be used to delever the balance sheet. We view favourably the partnership with Sumitomo, its largest customer and shareholder. The latter owns 20% of the smelter subsidiaries, which are subsidiary guarantors. Aside from the possibility of weakness in commodity prices, other key risks include disruptions to the key smelter plant, aggressive debt-funded M&A or expansion. Our Credit Bias is “Positive” given the ongoing recovery in aluminium prices, low expected capex and strong FCF generation. We view Press Metal‘s corporate governance as “Moderate" on the LAGA scale, mainly due to: [1] the family-owned nature of the company, with more than 60% ownership by members of the Koon family; and [2] limited related-party transactions. This is balanced by: [1] the presence of an Independent Chairman; [2] long operating and listing history; and [3] longstanding relationship with Sumitomo. Considering the peer comparison and current strong risk-on appetite - especially for diversification purposes away from China, Indonesia and India -we view the final price guidance for the proposed 5-year Notes as fair at 4.8-4.85%. We recommend that investors participate at or above this level.

We view Press Metal as “Medium Risk” on our LARA scale, with the strong financial risk profile and robust partnership with Sumitomo Corporation offsetting the volatile business profile and single-site risk. Press Metal is a small aluminium producer on a global scale, and has limited vertical integration. The company has production concentration risk, as one plant accounts for most of the production. It has a low-cost advantage, thanks to a fixed long-term PPA with a hydropower plant. It currently has no expansion plans and is thus producing meaningful FCF, which could be used to delever the balance sheet. We view favourably the partnership with Sumitomo, its largest customer and shareholder. The latter owns 20% of the smelter subsidiaries, which are subsidiary guarantors. Aside from the possibility of weakness in commodity prices, other key risks include disruptions to the key smelter plant, aggressive debt-funded M&A or expansion.  Our Credit Bias is “Positive” given the ongoing recovery in aluminium prices, low expected capex and strong FCF generation.  We view Press Metal‘s corporate governance as “Moderate" on the LAGA scale, mainly due to: [1] the family-owned nature of the company, with more than 60% ownership by members of the Koon family; and [2] limited related-party transactions. This is balanced by: [1] the presence of an Independent Chairman; [2] long operating and listing history; and [3] longstanding relationship with Sumitomo.  Considering the peer comparison and current strong risk-on appetite - especially for diversification purposes away from China, Indonesia and India -we view the final price guidance for the proposed 5-year Notes as fair at 4.8-4.85%. We recommend that investors participate at or above this level. 

Press Metal - New Issue Assessment - Lucror Analytics