Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Flash PMIs for December broadly exceeded expectations in the services sector, with the UK and EA rebounding and the US surging to highs more consistent with hikes than cuts.</li><li>A slight trend rise in the US unemployment rate suggests strength is partly structural but could be noise around cyclical strength. Global rates still don’t look tight. </li><li>We still expect persistent underlying price and wage inflation to truncate easing cycles earlier than most expect, following the norm for cuts without recessions, like in 1998.</li></ul><p></p>

Flash PMIs for December broadly exceeded expectations in the services sector, with the UK and EA rebounding and the US surging to highs more consistent with hikes than cuts.A slight trend rise in the US unemployment rate suggests strength is partly structural but could be noise around cyclical strength. Global rates still don’t look tight. We still expect persistent underlying price and wage inflation to truncate easing cycles earlier than most expect, following the norm for cuts without recessions, like in 1998.

PMIs Serve A Festive Party