Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

High Yield Experts

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

Credit

We view Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGN) as “Low Risk” on the LARA scale, mainly due to its indirect SOE status. PGN is 57% owned by Pertamina, which is in turn fully owned by the Indonesian government through the Ministry of State-Owned Enterprises. PGN is the dominant player in Indonesia’s natural gas transmission and distribution sector, with a near monopoly over the country’s gas pipelines. As a utilities company, PGN plays a key role in ensuring the supply of affordable gas for end-consumers and helping the country transition to cleaner energy (and away from coal). Our assessment also considers PGN’s robust standalone financial and leverage profile. That said, the company faces declining pricing power and its margins could weaken, due to the government’s price cap on natural gas sales to industrial consumers. The PGASIJ bond has a Change of Control put at 101, in the event the government ceases to own at least a 51% stake in the company. Our fundamental Credit Bias is “Stable”, considering PGN's healthy financial profile and strong liquidity. Moreover, the high oil price environment would benefit its upstream operations (under Saka Energi). That said, the company faces a debt maturity wall in May 2024, when the USD 1.35 bn PGASIJ 5.125 24 and USD 405 mn SAKAEI 4.45 24 will come due. We initiate coverage of PGN with a “Hold” recommendation.

We view Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGN) as “Low Risk” on the LARA scale, mainly due to its indirect SOE status. PGN is 57% owned by Pertamina, which is in turn fully owned by the Indonesian government through the Ministry of State-Owned Enterprises. PGN is the dominant player in Indonesia’s natural gas transmission and distribution sector, with a near monopoly over the country’s gas pipelines. As a utilities company, PGN plays a key role in ensuring the supply of affordable gas for end-consumers and helping the country transition to cleaner energy (and away from coal).  Our assessment also considers PGN’s robust standalone financial and leverage profile. That said, the company faces declining pricing power and its margins could weaken, due to the government’s price cap on natural gas sales to industrial consumers. The PGASIJ bond has a Change of Control put at 101, in the event the government ceases to own at least a 51% stake in the company.  Our fundamental Credit Bias is “Stable”, considering PGN's healthy financial profile and strong liquidity. Moreover, the high oil price environment would benefit its upstream operations (under Saka Energi). That said, the company faces a debt maturity wall in May 2024, when the USD 1.35 bn PGASIJ 5.125 24 and USD 405 mn SAKAEI 4.45 24 will come due.  We initiate coverage of PGN with a “Hold” recommendation.

Perusahaan Gas - Tear Sheet - Lucror Analytics

Perusahaan Gas Negara Perser

Perusahaan Gas - Tear Sheet - Lucror Analytics