Pan African Resources - Analysing H224 and looking forward to FY25

Pan African Resources’ (PAF’s) FY24 results, announced on 11 September, were within 1% of our prior forecasts for both EPS (4.14c cf 4.17c) and headline EPS (HEPS; 4.15c cf 4.17c). However, if the contract liability related to its ZAR400m financing facility for Mintails is stripped out, we calculate that PAF would have recorded HEPS of 5.27c, which would have been close to the top of the range of analysts’ expectations and also a record for both 12-month and six-month periods. While arguably academic for FY24, this nevertheless sets the stage for more material EPS and cash flow increases in the future as the Mintails contract liability concludes in February 2025 at the same time that opex stabilises and capex begins to fall away.