Deputy Chief Economist

Sharmila Whelan

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

<p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>We are bullish about Pakistan’s future even though the short-to-medium term economic outlook is clouded by the pandemic. Globally, the coronavirus pandemic is worsening and the number of cases in Pakistan is rising.  The IMF has just approved US$1.4bn worth of emergency funding. Pakistan will not escape the economic costs. The country is starting from a weak position. Last year’s twin-deficit crisis has left the economy enfeebled; GDP growth has slowed sharply led by domestic demand. Having said that, structural imbalances are correcting fast. Both the current account and budget deficits are narrowing. Fundamentals are healthy. Bank non-performing loan ratios remain low, capital adequacy ratios and profitability high. There is no large-scale corporate deleveraging underway. In the meantime, projects related to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) are progressing rapidly and China-Pakistan cooperation is deepening. </strong></p>

We are bullish about Pakistan’s future even though the short-to-medium term economic outlook is clouded by the pandemic. Globally, the coronavirus pandemic is worsening and the number of cases in Pakistan is rising.  The IMF has just approved US$1.4bn worth of emergency funding. Pakistan will not escape the economic costs. The country is starting from a weak position. Last year’s twin-deficit crisis has left the economy enfeebled; GDP growth has slowed sharply led by domestic demand. Having said that, structural imbalances are correcting fast. Both the current account and budget deficits are narrowing. Fundamentals are healthy. Bank non-performing loan ratios remain low, capital adequacy ratios and profitability high. There is no large-scale corporate deleveraging underway. In the meantime, projects related to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) are progressing rapidly and China-Pakistan cooperation is deepening. 

MSCI AC Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index (MXAPJ INDEX)

MSCI AC Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index

MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index (MXASJ INDEX)

Karachi Stock Exchange Kse100 Index (KSE100 INDEX)

Pakistan: Shaken, Not Stirred